[EM] Portland specifics, and ovals for approval cutoff

[Michael Garman]

Perhaps.

On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:47 PM Closed Limelike Curves <
closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com> wrote:

> I'm going to go ahead and say I'm skeptical either of these results will
> replicate, given there's no theoretical basis to think IRV would affect
> city council and mayoral seats differently. My guess is both results would
> disappear if you used a hierarchical/partial pooling model to reduce the
> noise in the estimates.
>
> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:45 AM Michael Garman <
> michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:
>
>> And that’s bad! But it doesn’t negate the point I made. In council races
>> it helps. And that’s good!
>> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:44 PM Closed Limelike Curves <
>> closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> > In mayoral elections, RCV seems to *decrease* gender and
>>> racial/ethnic diversity.
>>> Sounds substantial!
>>>
>>> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:28 AM Michael Garman <
>>> michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:
>>>
>>>> >  In city council elections, RCV has a small but positive effect on
>>>> racial/ethnic diversity
>>>> Sounds substantial!
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:26 PM Closed Limelike Curves <
>>>> closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Empirically, IRV adoption has no substantial effects on diversity
>>>>> <https://www.newamerica.org/political-reform/reports/rcv-impact-on-candidate-entry-and-representation/>.
>>>>> In theory, I'd expect a small decrease in representation for minorities,
>>>>> because people of color tend to have higher rates of spoiled ballots, so
>>>>> IRV should hit them the hardest.
>>>>>
>>>>> In general, the theoretical advantages of IRV over FPP are outweighed
>>>>> by its practical costs (spoiled ballots, lower trust in elections, cost,
>>>>> etc.).
>>>>> ----
>>>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for
>>>>> list info
>>>>>
>>>>
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