[EM] Portland specifics, and ovals for approval cutoff

[Closed Limelike Curves]

I'm going to go ahead and say I'm skeptical either of these results will
replicate, given there's no theoretical basis to think IRV would affect
city council and mayoral seats differently. My guess is both results would
disappear if you used a hierarchical/partial pooling model to reduce the
noise in the estimates.

On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:45 AM Michael Garman <
michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:

> And that’s bad! But it doesn’t negate the point I made. In council races
> it helps. And that’s good!
> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:44 PM Closed Limelike Curves <
> closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> > In mayoral elections, RCV seems to *decrease* gender and racial/ethnic
>> diversity.
>> Sounds substantial!
>>
>> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:28 AM Michael Garman <
>> michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:
>>
>>> >  In city council elections, RCV has a small but positive effect on
>>> racial/ethnic diversity
>>> Sounds substantial!
>>>
>>> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:26 PM Closed Limelike Curves <
>>> closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Empirically, IRV adoption has no substantial effects on diversity
>>>> <https://www.newamerica.org/political-reform/reports/rcv-impact-on-candidate-entry-and-representation/>.
>>>> In theory, I'd expect a small decrease in representation for minorities,
>>>> because people of color tend to have higher rates of spoiled ballots, so
>>>> IRV should hit them the hardest.
>>>>
>>>> In general, the theoretical advantages of IRV over FPP are outweighed
>>>> by its practical costs (spoiled ballots, lower trust in elections, cost,
>>>> etc.).
>>>> ----
>>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
>>>> info
>>>>
>>>
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