<div dir="ltr">Perhaps.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:47 PM Closed Limelike Curves <<a href="mailto:closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com">closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">I'm going to go ahead and say I'm skeptical either of these results will replicate, given there's no theoretical basis to think IRV would affect city council and mayoral seats differently. My guess is both results would disappear if you used a hierarchical/partial pooling model to reduce the noise in the estimates.</div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:45 AM Michael Garman <<a href="mailto:michael.garman@rankthevote.us" target="_blank">michael.garman@rankthevote.us</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto">And that’s bad! But it doesn’t negate the point I made. In council races it helps. And that’s good!</div><div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:44 PM Closed Limelike Curves <<a href="mailto:closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com" target="_blank">closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">> <span style="font-family:Lyon;font-size:18px;color:rgb(51,51,51)">In mayoral elections, RCV seems to <b style="font-family:Lyon">decrease</b> gender and racial/ethnic diversity. </span><div><font face="Lyon" style="font-family:Lyon;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="font-size:18px;font-family:Lyon">Sounds substantial!</span></font></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:28 AM Michael Garman <<a href="mailto:michael.garman@rankthevote.us" target="_blank">michael.garman@rankthevote.us</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">> 

<span style="font-family:Lyon;font-size:18px;color:rgb(51,51,51)">In city council elections, RCV has a small but positive effect on racial/ethnic diversity</span><div><font face="Lyon" style="font-family:Lyon;color:rgb(51,51,51)"><span style="font-size:18px;font-family:Lyon">Sounds substantial!</span></font></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:26 PM Closed Limelike Curves <<a href="mailto:closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com" target="_blank">closed.limelike.curves@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr">Empirically, IRV adoption <a href="https://www.newamerica.org/political-reform/reports/rcv-impact-on-candidate-entry-and-representation/" target="_blank">has no substantial effects on diversity</a>. In theory, I'd expect a small decrease in representation for minorities, because people of color tend to have higher rates of spoiled ballots, so IRV should hit them the hardest.<div><br></div><div>In general, the theoretical advantages of IRV over FPP are outweighed by its practical costs (spoiled ballots, lower trust in elections, cost, etc.).</div></div>
----<br>
Election-Methods mailing list - see <a href="https://electorama.com/em" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">https://electorama.com/em</a> for list info<br>
</blockquote></div>
</blockquote></div>
</blockquote></div></div>
</blockquote></div>
</blockquote></div>