[EM] Portland specifics, and ovals for approval cutoff

[Richard, the VoteFair guy]

On 7/11/2024 10:47 AM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:
 > ... given there's no theoretical basis to think IRV would affect
 > city council and mayoral seats differently. ...

In the new Portland elections, "ranked choice voting" for city-council 
seats is STV (the Single Transferable Vote) with three seats per 
district, whereas "ranked choice voting" for Portland mayor is 
single-winner IRV (instant-runoff voting).

Of course Portland's three-seats-per-district STV city-council elections 
are going to yield more gender and racial diversity compared to 
single-winner IRV for electing Portland's mayor.

Richard Fobes


On 7/11/2024 10:47 AM, Closed Limelike Curves wrote:
> I'm going to go ahead and say I'm skeptical either of these results will 
> replicate, given there's no theoretical basis to think IRV would affect 
> city council and mayoral seats differently. My guess is both results 
> would disappear if you used a hierarchical/partial pooling model to 
> reduce the noise in the estimates.
> 
> On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:45 AM Michael Garman 
> <michael.garman at rankthevote.us <mailto:michael.garman at rankthevote.us>> 
> wrote:
> 
>     And that’s bad! But it doesn’t negate the point I made. In council
>     races it helps. And that’s good!
>     On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:44 PM Closed Limelike Curves
>     <closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com
>     <mailto:closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
>          > In mayoral elections, RCV seems to *decrease* gender and
>         racial/ethnic diversity.
>         Sounds substantial!
> 
>         On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 10:28 AM Michael Garman
>         <michael.garman at rankthevote.us
>         <mailto:michael.garman at rankthevote.us>> wrote:
> 
>              > In city council elections, RCV has a small but positive
>             effect on racial/ethnic diversity
>             Sounds substantial!
> 
>             On Thu, Jul 11, 2024 at 1:26 PM Closed Limelike Curves
>             <closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com
>             <mailto:closed.limelike.curves at gmail.com>> wrote:
> 
>                 Empirically, IRV adoption has no substantial effects on
>                 diversity
>                 <https://www.newamerica.org/political-reform/reports/rcv-impact-on-candidate-entry-and-representation/>. In theory, I'd expect a small decrease in representation for minorities, because people of color tend to have higher rates of spoiled ballots, so IRV should hit them the hardest.
> 
>                 In general, the theoretical advantages of IRV over FPP
>                 are outweighed by its practical costs (spoiled ballots,
>                 lower trust in elections, cost, etc.).
>                 ----
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