[EM] Defeat Strength

[Forest Simmons]

Actually, max likelihood analysis would say that the A>B defeat was less
likely to be reversed because max likelihood estimation would estimate
Prob(B>A)=0.

But Baysian estimation would start with Prob(B>A)=Prob(A>B)>0<Prob(A=B)
prior probabilities, and then adjust using Bayes' law to posterior
probabilities in the order Prob(A=B)>Prob(A>B)>Prob(B>A)>0

and Prob(B>A) > Prob(G>F), so according to Bayes, the F>G defeat is
stronger (less likely to be reversed in a parallel universe) than the A>B
defeat.

Somebody should do the precise Bayesian calculations to verify (or refute)
my statistical intuition.


On Sat, Sep 3, 2022, 6:30 PM Forest Simmons <forest.simmons21 at gmail.com>
wrote:

> It has more to do with strategy than equity.
>
> I prefer minimizing opposition to the defeat, because that relieves
> tension, resentment, and polarization. Perhaps it is possible to win
> without alienating the opposition, i.e. without all of the bad feelings.
>
> Notice in the three examples, there was zero opposition against the
> victory of A over B, so no hard feelings if A beats B.
>
> On the other hand, the C beats D defeat is highly polarized ... 4999 angry
> losers.
>
> But my question which of the three claims is most defensible statistically
> ... i.e. which one is least likely to be reversed by a random fluctuation
> in the weather on election day in a parallel universe.
>
> It seems to me that the margins result (F defeating G) is the most stable
> in this case. Is that always true?
>
>
> On Sat, Sep 3, 2022, 5:33 PM robert bristow-johnson <
> rbj at audioimagination.com> wrote:
>
>>
>> I never really groked why WV (or LV) would represent defeat strength
>> better than margins.
>>
>> I just don't get it.  WV, that is.
>>
>> - robert
>>
>> *Powered by Cricket Wireless*
>>
>> ------ Original message------
>> *From: *Forest Simmons
>> *Date: *Sat, Sep 3, 2022 8:19 PM
>> *To: *EM;Richard Lung;robert bristow-johnson;
>> *Cc: *
>> *Subject:*Defeat Strength
>>
>> Suppose there are ten thousand voters, and ...
>> A defeats B, 100 to 0, (9900 abstentions)
>> C defeats E, 5001 to 4999, and
>> F defeats G, 1000 to 500 (8500 abstentions)
>>
>> Which pair should have defeat strength priority?
>>
>> Under wv, the (C, E) pair has priority.
>> Under margins (F, G) has priority, and
>> under losing votes (A, B) has priority.
>>
>> But which defeat should be considered most secure statistically?
>>
>> -Forest
>>
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>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for list
>> info
>>
>
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