<div dir="auto"><div>Actually, max likelihood analysis would say that the A>B defeat was less likely to be reversed because max likelihood estimation would estimate Prob(B>A)=0.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">But Baysian estimation would start with Prob(B>A)=Prob(A>B)>0<Prob(A=B) prior probabilities, and then adjust using Bayes' law to posterior probabilities in the order Prob(A=B)>Prob(A>B)>Prob(B>A)>0</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">and Prob(B>A) > Prob(G>F), so according to Bayes, the F>G defeat is stronger (less likely to be reversed in a parallel universe) than the A>B defeat.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Somebody should do the precise Bayesian calculations to verify (or refute) my statistical intuition.</div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Sep 3, 2022, 6:30 PM Forest Simmons <<a href="mailto:forest.simmons21@gmail.com">forest.simmons21@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="auto"><div>It has more to do with strategy than equity.<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I prefer minimizing opposition to the defeat, because that relieves tension, resentment, and polarization. Perhaps it is possible to win without alienating the opposition, i.e. without all of the bad feelings.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Notice in the three examples, there was zero opposition against the victory of A over B, so no hard feelings if A beats B.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">On the other hand, the C beats D defeat is highly polarized ... 4999 angry losers.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">But my question which of the three claims is most defensible statistically ... i.e. which one is least likely to be reversed by a random fluctuation in the weather on election day in a parallel universe.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">It seems to me that the margins result (F defeating G) is the most stable in this case. Is that always true?</div><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Sat, Sep 3, 2022, 5:33 PM robert bristow-johnson <<a href="mailto:rbj@audioimagination.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">rbj@audioimagination.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
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<div style="font-size:10pt"><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I never really groked why WV (or LV) would represent defeat strength better than margins.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I just don't get it. WV, that is.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">- robert</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div><div dir="auto"><i>Powered by Cricket Wireless</i></div></div></div><div style="font-size:10pt"><div id="m_8109507624651570976m_9148941680348863556LGEmailHeader" dir="auto"><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">------ Original message------</div><div dir="auto"><b>From: </b>Forest Simmons<u></u><u></u></div><div dir="auto"><b>Date: </b>Sat, Sep 3, 2022 8:19 PM</div><div dir="auto"><b>To: </b>EM;Richard Lung;robert bristow-johnson;</div><div dir="auto"><b>Cc: </b></div><div dir="auto"><b>Subject:</b>Defeat Strength</div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div><div dir="auto">Suppose there are ten thousand voters, and ...<div dir="auto">A defeats B, 100 to 0, (9900 abstentions)</div><div dir="auto">C defeats E, 5001 to 4999, and</div><div dir="auto">F defeats G, 1000 to 500 (8500 abstentions)</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Which pair should have defeat strength priority?</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Under wv, the (C, E) pair has priority.</div><div dir="auto">Under margins (F, G) has priority, and</div><div dir="auto">under losing votes (A, B) has priority.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">But which defeat should be considered most secure statistically? </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">-Forest</div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div>
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