[EM] Defeat Strength

[Forest Simmons]

It has more to do with strategy than equity.

I prefer minimizing opposition to the defeat, because that relieves
tension, resentment, and polarization. Perhaps it is possible to win
without alienating the opposition, i.e. without all of the bad feelings.

Notice in the three examples, there was zero opposition against the victory
of A over B, so no hard feelings if A beats B.

On the other hand, the C beats D defeat is highly polarized ... 4999 angry
losers.

But my question which of the three claims is most defensible statistically
... i.e. which one is least likely to be reversed by a random fluctuation
in the weather on election day in a parallel universe.

It seems to me that the margins result (F defeating G) is the most stable
in this case. Is that always true?


On Sat, Sep 3, 2022, 5:33 PM robert bristow-johnson <
rbj at audioimagination.com> wrote:

>
> I never really groked why WV (or LV) would represent defeat strength
> better than margins.
>
> I just don't get it.  WV, that is.
>
> - robert
>
> *Powered by Cricket Wireless*
>
> ------ Original message------
> *From: *Forest Simmons
> *Date: *Sat, Sep 3, 2022 8:19 PM
> *To: *EM;Richard Lung;robert bristow-johnson;
> *Cc: *
> *Subject:*Defeat Strength
>
> Suppose there are ten thousand voters, and ...
> A defeats B, 100 to 0, (9900 abstentions)
> C defeats E, 5001 to 4999, and
> F defeats G, 1000 to 500 (8500 abstentions)
>
> Which pair should have defeat strength priority?
>
> Under wv, the (C, E) pair has priority.
> Under margins (F, G) has priority, and
> under losing votes (A, B) has priority.
>
> But which defeat should be considered most secure statistically?
>
> -Forest
>
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