[Election-Methods] [english 89%] Re: [english 95%] Re: [english 95%] Re: [english 94%]Re: method designchallenge+new method AMP

[raphfrk at netscape.net]

I was thinking of a possible modification to your system that may take the chances of C to 100%.

1) Each voter submits a ballot rating each candidate.

2) The initial probability of each candidate is set at the proportion of highest ratings they get (equal top ratings split equally)

3) For each candidate:

Add a small increase in their probability

Renormalise probabilities (so bring total back to 1)

Determine number of voters who think this probability set is an improvement

4) If the change that has the greatest support has the support of more than (high)% of the voters, update the probabilities and goto 3

5) Randomly draw a candidate based on the final probabilities

The threshold for step 4 might be set at 90%.


So under your system, the voters might submit:

51: A(100) B(52) C(0)
49: A(0) B(52) C(0)

The initial probabilities are

A: 51%
B: 0%
C: 49%

Adding 1% to A would have the support of the A voters
Adding 1% to B would have the support of the B voters

Adding 1% to C would give

A: 50.495%
B: 1%
C: 49.505%

100% voters consider that an improvement.

This should be true the whole way until C gets to 100%
A: 0.51%
B: 0.49%
C: 99%

A voter's utility => 0.51*100 + 99*52 = 5199
B voter's utility => 0.49*100 + 99*52 = 5197

After

A: 0%
B: 0%
C: 100%

A voter's utility => 100*52 = 5200

B voter's utility => 100*52 = 5200

100% of voters think it is an improvement.

If A voters voted

A(100) B(0) C(0)

the the results would be

Initial

A: 51%
B: 49%
C: 0%

Reducing the probability of A winning would represent a decrease in the utility from the perspective of the A voters (according to their votes).

This means that no change would be approved by 90%+ of the voters and thus the initial probabilities would be the final ones.

This is not as good from the A supporters, so they would be advised to vote honestly.

The 90% rule prevents hold-outs and increases the chances that a single winner occurs with 100% probability.

I am not sure if there a way for the A supporters to shift the result to a non-certain winner that they like better.


 

 


Raphfrk
--------------------
Interesting site
"what if anyone could modify the laws"

www.wikocracy.com

 


 



 


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