[EM] definitive or estimated results

[Richard Lung]

With regard to assumptions, the usual distinction between determinism 
and statistics can confuse rather than clarify an issue. Determinism can 
simply mean there is the assumption that there is a right or definitive 
value. Whereas statistics is merely meant to mean that there is no sure 
right value but only an estimate of value, some estimates being better 
than others.

Roughly speaking, this is the journey that physics has traveled from 
classical mechanics to quantum mechanics.

But it need not apply just to the latter. Engineers are said to be 
already familiar with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. (And Paul 
Dirac, who first related quantum theory to special relativity, was an 
engineer.)

In the case of special relativity, traditionally regarded as a classical 
theory, it turns out that the “deterministic” variables of the theory 
are really implicit averages. But the ranges, of which they are 
averages, remain implicit, except in the realm of high-energy physics.

Likewise with a deterministic assumption in election method that there 
is some definitive value of election results, rather than just a process 
of arriving at better estimates.

The “Condorcet winner” is a case in point. I found it worked at least as 
well as Borda method for single vacancies,(the two rational methods 
agreed unlike their unrational counterparts)  even for a very finely 
balanced vote for the candidates, provided the Condorcet pairings were 
proportionally weighted to the respective votes for paired candidates.

But I guessed the reason for this was that in the case of single 
vacancies, a single preference is all that is required. Thus, the order 
of importance, that voters attach to the candidates, is of minimal 
importance, because only one candidate will be elected anyway. 
Therefore, it matters more that one try out all the logical 
alternatives, of single candidate preference, for a Condorcet winner.

But in multi-member constituencies, the order of importance, to the 
voters, becomes more and more important, the more seats there are in the 
constituency. And as the Condorcet winner does not take into account 
this range of relative choice, it becomes less and less relevant, to 
more multi-member constituencies.

Regards,

Richard Lung.

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