[EM] Exactly what is the non-monotonicity demonstrated in the Alaska 2022 special election.

[robert bristow-johnson]

So Limey, I have edited the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election page.  I am trying to synthesize the most concise but complete description of the pathologies demonstrated in that specific election with the specific vote tallies that we have.  (There are notable differences between the Graham-Squire & McCune results and those that I got from Robbie Robinette, but I am not worrying about that for now.)

Now, I understand exactly and quantitatively the Center Squeeze and exactly how Palin has the role of spoiler.  That's not a problem.  But I cannot see non-monotonicity demonstrated at all in this election.  I have trouble with this specific sentence: "The election was also notable as a negative vote weight event, a pathology where a candidate (Begich) is eliminated as a result of winning too many votes."  I do not see that Begich was eliminated as a result of winning too many votes.

I understand how a hypothetical non-monotonicity was demonstrated in the Burlington 2009 IRV election.  If Bob Kiss campaigned hard in Kurt Wright territory and somehow won over 741 votes that otherwise had gone to Wright, that would have caused Kiss to lose, because Wright would have been eliminated before the final round and Kiss would lose to Montroll.  But that's a big "what if" hypothetical.  That actually did not happen, and that is the reason I left out non-monotonicity out of my paper.  (Thwarted majority, spoiler effect, negative reward for voting for your favorite candidate.)

I had thought that IIA and Favorite Betrayal were not the same as non-monotonicity.  Non-monotonicity means, strictly, if more people vote for (1st choice) a specific candidate, that causes that candidate, who would have otherwise won, to lose.

Can you spell out the numbers?  Or someone else?  You can use these numbers: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y32bPVmq6vb6SwnMn6vwQxzoJfvrv6ID/view or those from the Graham-Squire/McCune report or whatever good numbers from the cast vote records you get.

I just don't see non-monotonicity demonstrated in the August 2022 Alaska election.

Also, we need to team up to preserve these edits at Wikipedia.  I'm gonna hit 3RR real soon.

--

r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj at audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."

.
.
.