[EM] Was PA a Condorcet cycle, or did Bernie get center-squeezed?

[C.Benham]

 From this distance I gather that overall in the US with those 3 
candidates Sanders would be the sincere big CW, and there would be quite
a few  Sanders>Trump and Trump>Sanders.  With similar media access 
Sanders would likely have been also the sincere plurality winner.

I think  shake-things-up versus more-of-the-same was more significant 
than the "feminist/masculinist axis".

> Elects Trump: plurality; plurality with runoff (or primary/general, as 
> happened in reality); IRV

On your hypothetical figures IRV and "plurality with runoff" would elect 
Clinton 49-48.

> 30: Clinton>Sanders
> 19: Sanders>Clinton
> 3: Sanders ("Bernie bros")
> 48: Trump
>
> This is an honest Condorcet cycle!
Clinton > Trump 49-48,   Clinton > Sanders 30-24,  Sanders > Trump 52-48.

Clinton looks like the CW.

Chris Benham


On 11/14/2016 8:23 AM, Jameson Quinn wrote:
> I believe that the honest preferences in the Pennsylvania presidential 
> election, crucial to Trump's victory, may well have been something 
> like the following:
>
> 30: Clinton>Sanders
> 19: Sanders>Clinton
> 3: Sanders ("Bernie bros")
> 48: Trump
>
> This is an honest Condorcet cycle! In that case, the people who are 
> arguing that "Bernie would have been a better candidate" would be 
> simultaneously correct (against Trump) and wrong (in a two-way race 
> between Sanders and Clinton).
>
> It's also possible that it was like the above, except that the Trump 
> voters had a net preference for Sanders. In that case, Sanders (the 
> self-styled socialist) would have lost to center squeeze! He's 
> certainly not the center one of those three candidates on a left/right 
> axis, but I guess that he is on a feminist/masculinist axis.
>
> So, how would different election systems do on the election above?
>
> Elects Trump: plurality; plurality with runoff (or primary/general, as 
> happened in reality); IRV
> Elects Sanders: PAR, Bucklin systems, most Condorcet systems (I think)
> Elects Clinton: SODA (assuming that Bernie agrees with the majority of 
> his supporters, and that the "bros" don't explicitly use "do not 
> delegate"); perhaps some Condorcet systems (which?)
> Who knows what would happen: Approval, Score (depends on strategy)
>
>
>
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