[EM] Was PA a Condorcet cycle, or did Bernie get center-squeezed?

Jameson Quinn jameson.quinn at gmail.com
Sun Nov 13 13:53:19 PST 2016


I believe that the honest preferences in the Pennsylvania presidential
election, crucial to Trump's victory, may well have been something like the
following:

30: Clinton>Sanders
19: Sanders>Clinton
3: Sanders ("Bernie bros")
48: Trump

This is an honest Condorcet cycle! In that case, the people who are arguing
that "Bernie would have been a better candidate" would be simultaneously
correct (against Trump) and wrong (in a two-way race between Sanders and
Clinton).

It's also possible that it was like the above, except that the Trump voters
had a net preference for Sanders. In that case, Sanders (the self-styled
socialist) would have lost to center squeeze! He's certainly not the center
one of those three candidates on a left/right axis, but I guess that he is
on a feminist/masculinist axis.

So, how would different election systems do on the election above?

Elects Trump: plurality; plurality with runoff (or primary/general, as
happened in reality); IRV
Elects Sanders: PAR, Bucklin systems, most Condorcet systems (I think)
Elects Clinton: SODA (assuming that Bernie agrees with the majority of his
supporters, and that the "bros" don't explicitly use "do not delegate");
perhaps some Condorcet systems (which?)
Who knows what would happen: Approval, Score (depends on strategy)
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