[EM] Burlington's first post-IRV mayoral election

[Jameson Quinn]

2012/3/9 Kristofer Munsterhjelm <km_elmet at lavabit.com>

> On 03/08/2012 06:27 AM, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
>
>  It didn't happen, much to my astonishment:
>>
>> http://www.burlingtonvt.gov/**CT/Elections/Results---DMS-**
>> Documents/2012/Annual-City-**Election-Results/<http://www.burlingtonvt.gov/CT/Elections/Results---DMS-Documents/2012/Annual-City-Election-Results/>
>>
>> So, for the time being, losing the ranked ballot hasn't hurt the cause
>> of majority rule in Burlington Vermont, but when the Progs decide to
>> jump back into the game, I still fear it might.
>>
>> Sorry for not updating you folks earlier. I was pretty wrecked last
>> night and this morning. Finally got over the hangover this evening.
>>
>
> I suspect that either of the 2.5-party methods (as well as those that do
> even worse, like Plurality) lead to third parties eventually being squeezed
> out from the position in question - either by themselves (from not wanting
> to spoil the election) or by the voters (that don't want to make the
> greater evil win).
>
> In Plurality, the Progs are the potential spoilers; in IRV, the
> Republicans.
>
> I don't know what method 40% runoff will end up being closer to in
> Duvergerian terms -- 50% runoff or plain old Plurality.


Depends if the republicans can get more than 40% more than half the time.
I'd say they probably can, so it ends up being more like plurality.

Jameson

>
>
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