[EM] Burlington's first post-IRV mayoral election

[robert bristow-johnson]

On 3/9/12 2:54 PM, Jameson Quinn wrote:
>
>
> 2012/3/9 Kristofer Munsterhjelm <km_elmet at lavabit.com 
> <mailto:km_elmet at lavabit.com>>
>
>     On 03/08/2012 06:27 AM, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
>
>         It didn't happen, much to my astonishment:
>
>         http://www.burlingtonvt.gov/CT/Elections/Results---DMS-Documents/2012/Annual-City-Election-Results/
>
>         So, for the time being, losing the ranked ballot hasn't hurt
>         the cause
>         of majority rule in Burlington Vermont, but when the Progs
>         decide to
>         jump back into the game, I still fear it might.
>
>         Sorry for not updating you folks earlier. I was pretty wrecked
>         last
>         night and this morning. Finally got over the hangover this
>         evening.
>
>
>     I suspect that either of the 2.5-party methods (as well as those
>     that do even worse, like Plurality) lead to third parties
>     eventually being squeezed out from the position in question -
>     either by themselves (from not wanting to spoil the election) or
>     by the voters (that don't want to make the greater evil win).
>
>     In Plurality, the Progs are the potential spoilers; in IRV, the
>     Republicans.
>
at least in this town in 2009.  i dunno if i would generalize further.

one thing that i had noticed since posting this, it *did* refute the 
notion that in 2009, that the Plurality winner (GOP Kurt Wright) was the 
candidate robbed of victory by IRV.  this year Kurt got 3746 votes 
(against Miro's 5801, Miro really creamed Kurt) and three years ago, if 
you do the pairwise comparison, Kurt got 3664 against Montroll's 4597.  
it is the fact that when stacked up against the Prog, Kurt did a 
*little* better (4061 to Kiss's 4313), but when stacked up against a 
Democrat, all Kurt can muster in this town is about 3700 votes.  as a 
candidate, that is really the limit to his support, and IRV did not take 
that away from him.  in fact, IRV gave him a little more (another 397 
votes) in the final round.  IRV did *not* hurt Kurt Wright in 2009.  it 
made him appear to have more support than he actually had.

i think this is what i'm gonna write about (in the local paper) 
regarding the election.  we'll see if they print that.

>     I don't know what method 40% runoff will end up being closer to in
>     Duvergerian terms -- 50% runoff or plain old Plurality.
>
>
> Depends if the republicans can get more than 40% more than half the 
> time. I'd say they probably can, so it ends up being more like plurality.
>
it was 37% this time.  Miro's margin was so great this time, there is no 
question as to who was the choice of the electorate.  even if all of 
Wanda's votes went to Kurt, it would be 57% to 42%.  i am still astonished.

-- 

r b-j                  rbj at audioimagination.com

"Imagination is more important than knowledge."