[EM] A design flaw in the electoral system

[Michael Allan]

Juho Laatu wrote:
> True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the
> (large) elections that I have ever participated. ...

You are not really in doubt, are you?  You would remember if your vote
made a difference.

> I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters).

Well, if the vote makes no difference, then it has no power.  Its
power could not be 1/N, in any case; it is either zero (no effect) or
something closer to N (decisive).  But a decisive vote is exceedingly
rare and you're unlikely to cast one in your lifetime.

> (One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least
> afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I
> wanted them to do.)

Politicians won't be concerned about an individual vote, of course,
because it makes no difference.  I think you were generalizing here to
other voters, but the argument hinges on the individual vote.

That vote *ought* to have an effect, but it does not.  The situation
is rightly difficult to accept.  Whatever political liberty you (or I)
can salvage in the face of state power, it cannot come from that vote.

-- 
Michael Allan

Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
http://zelea.com/


Juho Laatu wrote:
> True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the
> (large) elections that I have ever participated. But on the other
> hand, was that the intention of the election? Probably not. I guess
> the intention was to elect those alternatives that had wide
> support. Allowing me to change the winner (with any significant
> probability) would have violated the principles of democracy.

> > If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
> > and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.
> 
> I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters).
> 
> (One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least
> afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I
> wanted them to do.)

> Juho
> 
> On 14.10.2011, at 20.39, Michael Allan wrote:
> 
> > Hi Juho,
> > 
> >> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
> >> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
> >> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
> >> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
> >> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. ...
> > 
> > Granted that a margin of victory has effects in the objective world,
> > it does not follow that an individual vote also has effects.  Or at
> > least Andrew does not appear to be claiming this.
> > 
> >> ... And the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
> >> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
> >> election may be important.
> > 
> > Again, that does not seem to follow.  We are still confronted with a
> > measurable effect of zero, as empirical science can show:
> > 
> >  1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at its
> >     outcome (P).  Who got into office?
> >  2. Subtract your vote from that election.
> >  3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q).
> >  4. Look at the difference between P and Q.
> >  5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in.
> >     Your vote never made a difference.  My vote never made a
> >     differerence.  Others: did your vote ever make a difference?
> > 
> > If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
> > and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.
> > 
> > -- 
> > Michael Allan
> > 
> > Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
> > http://zelea.com/
> > 
> > 
> > Juho Laatu wrote:
> >> On 7.10.2011, at 12.19, Michael Allan wrote:
> >> 
> >>> Imagine one person is nodding
> >>> in agreement to a proposal, while another is shaking her head.
> >> 
> >>> We could ask, "What effect did this voter *as such*
> >>> have on the decision that was reached, or anything that followed from
> >>> it?"  In most cases, the answer would be incalculable, tied up in a
> >>> web of cause and effect that plays out endlessly.  We might say it was
> >>> "boundless", or that it hovered somewhere between zero and infinity.
> >>> 
> >>> In further reply to Juho, I would offer this indeterminacy as an
> >>> alternative to the apparent dilemma of no effect vs. decisive effect.
> >> 
> >> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
> >> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
> >> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
> >> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
> >> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. And
> >> the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
> >> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
> >> election may be important.
> > 
> >> Juho