[EM] A design flaw in the electoral system

[Juho Laatu]

On 17.10.2011, at 23.33, Michael Allan wrote:

> Juho Laatu wrote:
>> True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the
>> (large) elections that I have ever participated. ...
> 
> You are not really in doubt, are you?  You would remember if your vote
> made a difference.

Most elections that I have participated in have been multi-winner elections. It is possible that my favourite has won with one vote but nobody has told me about that. I have not often checked the final results in that level of detail. It is also possible that my single vote has changed the proportional shares of seats of the parties. It is more probable (but not guaranteed) that I would have heard about such a tight race.

> 
>> I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters).
> 
> Well, if the vote makes no difference, then it has no power.  Its
> power could not be 1/N, in any case; it is either zero (no effect) or
> something closer to N (decisive).  But a decisive vote is exceedingly
> rare and you're unlikely to cast one in your lifetime.

In multi-party elections also other numbers than 0 and 1 (or N) are possible.

If we assume that the whole election had an impact (1 or N), but no single vote was decisive, then who had the power?

The politicians also fought for my vote and therefore they drafted some plans and made some promises, so I feel that my vote (or the fact that I can vote and I voted) had some power (even if my vote was not a decisive vote). Maybe the election was fought (and plans for the future made and presented) already before the election day and before the votes were counted. Maybe the election results just verified what had already been decided just before the election day.

> 
>> (One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least
>> afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I
>> wanted them to do.)
> 
> Politicians won't be concerned about an individual vote, of course,
> because it makes no difference.

Do you mean that since no individual vote makes a difference the politicians should stay home and not spend time and money in the campaigns (shaking my hand and promising me things)?

>  I think you were generalizing here to
> other voters, but the argument hinges on the individual vote.
> 
> That vote *ought* to have an effect, but it does not.  The situation
> is rightly difficult to accept.  Whatever political liberty you (or I)
> can salvage in the face of state power, it cannot come from that vote.

Maybe the explanation that I gave above, works here too. Maybe the key was the campaign time and programs and promises there.


My best explanation is however still to think in terms of "how can we influence" and not "how can I influence", when we consider whether we should vote in the next election or not. Also the fact that we vote is important since it keeps the politicians alert.

Juho


> 
> -- 
> Michael Allan
> 
> Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
> http://zelea.com/
> 
> 
> Juho Laatu wrote:
>> True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the
>> (large) elections that I have ever participated. But on the other
>> hand, was that the intention of the election? Probably not. I guess
>> the intention was to elect those alternatives that had wide
>> support. Allowing me to change the winner (with any significant
>> probability) would have violated the principles of democracy.
> 
>>> If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
>>> and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.
>> 
>> I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters).
>> 
>> (One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least
>> afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I
>> wanted them to do.)
> 
>> Juho
>> 
>> On 14.10.2011, at 20.39, Michael Allan wrote:
>> 
>>> Hi Juho,
>>> 
>>>> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
>>>> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
>>>> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
>>>> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
>>>> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. ...
>>> 
>>> Granted that a margin of victory has effects in the objective world,
>>> it does not follow that an individual vote also has effects.  Or at
>>> least Andrew does not appear to be claiming this.
>>> 
>>>> ... And the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
>>>> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
>>>> election may be important.
>>> 
>>> Again, that does not seem to follow.  We are still confronted with a
>>> measurable effect of zero, as empirical science can show:
>>> 
>>> 1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at its
>>>    outcome (P).  Who got into office?
>>> 2. Subtract your vote from that election.
>>> 3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q).
>>> 4. Look at the difference between P and Q.
>>> 5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in.
>>>    Your vote never made a difference.  My vote never made a
>>>    differerence.  Others: did your vote ever make a difference?
>>> 
>>> If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
>>> and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.
>>> 
>>> -- 
>>> Michael Allan
>>> 
>>> Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
>>> http://zelea.com/
>>> 
>>> 
>>> Juho Laatu wrote:
>>>> On 7.10.2011, at 12.19, Michael Allan wrote:
>>>> 
>>>>> Imagine one person is nodding
>>>>> in agreement to a proposal, while another is shaking her head.
>>>> 
>>>>> We could ask, "What effect did this voter *as such*
>>>>> have on the decision that was reached, or anything that followed from
>>>>> it?"  In most cases, the answer would be incalculable, tied up in a
>>>>> web of cause and effect that plays out endlessly.  We might say it was
>>>>> "boundless", or that it hovered somewhere between zero and infinity.
>>>>> 
>>>>> In further reply to Juho, I would offer this indeterminacy as an
>>>>> alternative to the apparent dilemma of no effect vs. decisive effect.
>>>> 
>>>> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
>>>> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
>>>> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
>>>> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
>>>> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. And
>>>> the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
>>>> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
>>>> election may be important.
>>> 
>>>> Juho
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