[EM] A design flaw in the electoral system

[Juho Laatu]

True. My vote has probably not made any difference in any of the (large) elections that I have ever participated. But on the other hand, was that the intention of the election? Probably not. I guess the intention was to elect those alternatives that had wide support. Allowing me to change the winner (with any significant probability) would have violated the principles of democracy.

> If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
> and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.

I think I had my fair share of power (1 / number of voters).

(One more possible explanation is that the politicians were at least afraid of me voting against them, and that's why they did what I wanted them to do.)

Juho



On 14.10.2011, at 20.39, Michael Allan wrote:

> Hi Juho,
> 
>> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
>> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
>> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
>> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
>> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. ...
> 
> Granted that a margin of victory has effects in the objective world,
> it does not follow that an individual vote also has effects.  Or at
> least Andrew does not appear to be claiming this.
> 
>> ... And the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
>> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
>> election may be important.
> 
> Again, that does not seem to follow.  We are still confronted with a
> measurable effect of zero, as empirical science can show:
> 
>  1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at its
>     outcome (P).  Who got into office?
>  2. Subtract your vote from that election.
>  3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q).
>  4. Look at the difference between P and Q.
>  5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in.
>     Your vote never made a difference.  My vote never made a
>     differerence.  Others: did your vote ever make a difference?
> 
> If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
> and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.
> 
> -- 
> Michael Allan
> 
> Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
> http://zelea.com/
> 
> 
> Juho Laatu wrote:
>> On 7.10.2011, at 12.19, Michael Allan wrote:
>> 
>>> Imagine one person is nodding
>>> in agreement to a proposal, while another is shaking her head.
>> 
>>> We could ask, "What effect did this voter *as such*
>>> have on the decision that was reached, or anything that followed from
>>> it?"  In most cases, the answer would be incalculable, tied up in a
>>> web of cause and effect that plays out endlessly.  We might say it was
>>> "boundless", or that it hovered somewhere between zero and infinity.
>>> 
>>> In further reply to Juho, I would offer this indeterminacy as an
>>> alternative to the apparent dilemma of no effect vs. decisive effect.
>> 
>> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
>> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
>> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
>> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
>> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. And
>> the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
>> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
>> election may be important.
> 
>> Juho
> ----
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