[EM] A design flaw in the electoral system

[Michael Allan]

Hi Juho,

> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. ...

Granted that a margin of victory has effects in the objective world,
it does not follow that an individual vote also has effects.  Or at
least Andrew does not appear to be claiming this.

> ... And the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
> election may be important.

Again, that does not seem to follow.  We are still confronted with a
measurable effect of zero, as empirical science can show:

  1. Take the last election in which you voted, and look at its
     outcome (P).  Who got into office?
  2. Subtract your vote from that election.
  3. Recalculate the outcome without your vote (Q).
  4. Look at the difference between P and Q.
  5. Repeat for all the elections you ever participated in.
     Your vote never made a difference.  My vote never made a
     differerence.  Others: did your vote ever make a difference?

If you (or I) have any political freedom in the face of state power
and laws, then it cannot possibly come from voting in elections.

-- 
Michael Allan

Toronto, +1 416-699-9528
http://zelea.com/


Juho Laatu wrote:
> On 7.10.2011, at 12.19, Michael Allan wrote:
> 
> > Imagine one person is nodding
> > in agreement to a proposal, while another is shaking her head.
> 
> > We could ask, "What effect did this voter *as such*
> > have on the decision that was reached, or anything that followed from
> > it?"  In most cases, the answer would be incalculable, tied up in a
> > web of cause and effect that plays out endlessly.  We might say it was
> > "boundless", or that it hovered somewhere between zero and infinity.
> > 
> > In further reply to Juho, I would offer this indeterminacy as an
> > alternative to the apparent dilemma of no effect vs. decisive effect.
> 
> Yes, there are many additional factors. Already a vote without any
> discussions between voters can be seen as a part of a complex
> process. At lest the input that the voter got was complex, even if
> the voter did not produce any "output" in his environment. Also the
> margin of the victory will be meaningful like Andrew Myers said. And
> the voter himself could be already thinking about the next
> election. In order to win then, every single additional vote in this
> election may be important.

> Juho