[EM] More non-altruistic attacks on IRV usage.

[Jameson Quinn]

Here's I think the crux of your mistake:

> We can't say it's just a matter of opinion, cuz it's probably not such,
>

I don't want to get too far into philosophical issues here, but I think
that in one sense we can basically take it for granted that it's not such:
that, in the proverbial phrase, God does, in fact, know whether
p(irv_succeeds_broadly | voting_reform_succeeds_broadly ) is close to 1,
close to 0.5, or close to 0. (I say that as shorthand; I'm actually quite
convinced God doesn't exist, I'm just saying I believe in objective truth.)

 But the fact that the truth is out there, does not imply that it is either
desirable or possible for people to stop arguing about it before we have
much clearer evidence of what it is.


> and so what makes sense to me is to rally around IRV3/AV3
>

Exactly. What makes sense to YOU. You have chosen to believe in a certain
scenario about the future. But repeating and repeating your plausible, but
non-overwhelming, reasons for making that choice, simply is not going to
lead to everyone lining up behind you.

We already have a nice dinner riding on each of us believing "I'm right and
you're reasonable enough to see that eventually". But I think I could make
you some further bets where your overconfident belief would make you a
sucker.
1. I'd bet you at 5:1 odds that you won't convince this list to do what you
say. You can propose your own terms, but I'm thinking of something like the
following: 2 years from today, take "people on this list" to mean "email
addresses, weighted by max(0, ln(number of posts to this list))", that
there will be more people on this list who support other methods over IRV
than vice versa, by objective metrics. So I'd put up $500 against your $100.
2. I'd bet you at even odds that, ten years from today, IF more than 20
different US jurisdictions have separately implemented some single winner
reform, that fewer than 10 of those are IRV. (I agree with you that if
voting reform continues with limited, scattered success as today, that it
will probably be mostly IRV. But I think that the case where it
successfully takes off is a different kettle of fish.) I'd put up to $200
on this bet.

I'm serious about both of these offers. If you're serious about what you
affirm on this list, you should take me up on them, because you would have
to believe that they're safe bets for you. Of course, since I'm talking
about real money, though hopefully something either of us could afford, I
wouldn't make these bets without further clarifying the rules and finding
some way we can make our 2/10 year commitments reasonably trustworthy to
each other.

Jameson
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