[Election-Methods] Dopp: 2. “Requires centralized vote counting procedures at the state-level"

raphfrk at netscape.net raphfrk at netscape.net
Thu Jun 12 18:01:09 PDT 2008

``` >
The method used in Ireland is the Contingent
Vote. There
> cannot be more than two rounds of
counting, because all
> but the top two are
eliminated in one step, if there is no
> majority in the first round.

Sorry to jump in on a (relatively) minor point.? I am 99% sure
this is not correct.? The constitution requires that PR-STV be
used to elect the president.? Ofc, this can be defined by the
Dail via legislation, but I don't think switching to contingent vote
would be considered consistent with the constitution.

I think you may have misinterpreted the system because
of the multiple elimination rule

The result after round 1 was

45.24%) McAleese
29.30%) Banotti
13.82%) Scallon
6.96%) Roche
4.69%) Nally

The rule is that you can eliminate a group of the lowest
candidates as long as the sum of their vote is lower than
the vote of the next highest candidate.? The theory is that
that even if they all transferred their votes to one of the group,
that candidate would still be eliminated anyway as they
wouldn't have less votes than any candidate outside the
group.? This is somewhat equivalent to declaring a candidate
with the majority of the remaining votes a winner because
even if all the other candidates transfer their votes to a
single one of them, they will still have less votes than the
one with the majority.

Nally + Roche + Scallon = 25.47%

This is lower than Banotti's total (29.30%), so all 3 can be eliminated
in one go.

Thus round 2 only contains McAleese and Banotti.

In effect, round 2,3 and 4 are skipped as it no matter how
the transfers go, Nally, Roche and Scallon would be eliminated
in that order.?

In fact, sometimes the order isn't known for sure, just that they
would all be eliminated for sure.

For example, if the votes were

N: 6
R: 7
S: 12
B: 30

Then it could go one of two ways

If Nally transfers mostly to Roche, then after he is eliminated, it becomes

R: 13
S: 12
B: 30

The elimination order is N->S->R

OTOH, if the votes are split more evenly, it would be something like

R: 10
S: 15
B: 30

The elimination order is N->R->S

In both cases, N, R and S are eliminated before Banotti.

Thus it might look like contingent vote but is actually PR-STV (single seat).

Raphfrk
--------------------
Interesting site
"what if anyone could modify the laws"

www.wikocracy.com

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