[Election-Methods] Top 5 Primary

[Juho]

On Dec 27, 2007, at 22:39 , Don&Cathy Hoffard wrote:

> In this example I will uses the 2008 US Presidential Election only  
> to illustrate a point - you could assume a state Governor or  
> Senators race
>
>
>
> We currently have about 25 candidates running for President of the  
> United States.
>
> 9 Democrats
>
> 9 Republicans
>
> 3 (assumed) Green
>
> 2 (assumed) Libertarian
>
> 2 (assumed Constitution
>
>
>
> Bases on the current election laws we will have 5 candidates in the  
> General Election.
>
> 1 Democrat
>
> 1 Republican
>
> 1 Green
>
> 1 Libertarian
>
> 1 Constitution
>
>
>
> Voters will be asked the vote for one of these candidates.
>
>
>
> Why do we have to choose among the following preferences (using  
> head-to-head match ups – i.e. Condorcet) among the 25 candidates  
> running?
>
>
>
> 4 most preferred (Democrat Party/Clinton-Plurality winner)
>
> 5 most preferred (Republican Party/Giuliani-Plurality winner)
>
> 15-19 most preferred (Green Party - assume Nader)
>
> 21 most preferred (Libertarian Party -unknown)
>
> 23 most preferred (Constitution Party -unknown)
>
>
>
> If we have to have 5 candidate in the general election why not have  
> the TOP 5 (based on the Condorcet method)
>
Is the plan is to first arrange a Condorcet election between all  
candidates and then between the top 5 candidates? In that case if the  
voters have not changed opinion between the two elections (and the  
voters vote sincerely) then the results of the second round should  
usually be a copy of the results at the first round. In that sense  
the results of the first round could be considered also final. But if  
the law requires to arrange an election between 5, why not then.

Too many candidates in an election may be a problem since that makes  
voting tedious. One option would be to allow large parties to have  
e.g. 2 candidates each and small parties to have only one candidate.  
In this case also republicans would have a say on which one of the  
democrats will win (assuming that democrats will have majority). I'm  
not sure if democrats want that or if they prefer to first elect the  
"best democrat" among the democrats and name only that candidate in  
the final election. Having several candidates in the final election  
may make the probability of electing some of them higher.

My point is just that running primaries and the number of candidates  
each party wants to nominate and the maximum number of candidates in  
the final election do have impact on how the system works.

Condorcet should work ok in all phases (I don't expect strategic  
votes to be a major problem).

Juho Laatu

> They would be the following (assuming the Primary Election matches  
> the Dec. Polls):
>
> Edwards (would beat all Republicans and Democrats based on  
> Condorcet rankings see below)
> (tie) McCain
> (tie) Obama
> Clinton
> Giuliani
> We could then chose the winner (and next president) using the  
> Condorcet method (or use range, approval, or IRV methods)
>
>
>
> If the General Election voting matched to polls then Edwards would  
> be elected President
>
> I’m not necessarily voting for him, this is only the Voters  
> Preferred President.
>
>
>
> Thanks
>
> Don Hoffard
>
>
>
>
>
> Poll results:
>
> Margins of Victory (based on Dec. Polls)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Vs.
>
>           Giuliani
>
>     Romney
>
>                             Huckabee
>
>         McCain
>
> Thompson
>
>    Average
>
> Clinton
>
> 6
>
> 11
>
> 10
>
> -2
>
> 13
>
> 7.6
>
> Obama
>
> 7
>
> 13
>
> 15
>
> 0
>
> 12
>
> 9.4
>
> Edwards
>
> 9
>
> 22
>
> 25
>
> 8
>
> 14
>
> 15.6
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Average
>
> 7.3
>
> 15.3
>
> 16.7
>
> 2.0
>
> 13.0
>
> 10.9
>
>
>
>
>
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>
> Condorcet ranking (assumed based on margins and averages)
>
>
>
> 1          Edwards
>
> 2 tie      Obama
>
> 2 tie      McCain
>
> 4          Clinton
>
> 5          Giuliani
>
> 6          Thompson
>
> 7          Romney
>
> 8          Huckabee
>
>
>
> ----
> Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for  
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