[EM] Updated article

[Jan Kok]

Rob,

Overall, I like the previous, short version and the current version
about equally.  The short version spent a larger fraction of the text
talking about the problems with Plurality voting.  The problems with
Plurality are the common ground that pretty much all voting reformers
(IRVists, Approvalists, Condorcetists...) agree on.  Those problems
are also the most likely "hook" to get ordinary citizens and political
activists interested in voting reform.  So, I like to put a lot of
emphasis on the problems with Plurality when I promote voting reform.

It's a pity that Approval isn't your favorite method.  If it was, you
could keep the article pretty short. :-)

You say "If the voter guesses wrong, there is a good chance that
voting may actually do more harm than good to his own cause."  I am
afraid the casual reader won't understand what you are talking about,
unless you reword this to be more descriptive, or show an example.  I
don't see any way to avoid explaining the problem clearly, because
that problem is the justification for allowing voters to cahnge their
votes, and for introducing ranked ballot methods.  I assume you are
talking about the problem that if a voter underestimates the strength
of his Favorite candidate (relative to a Disliked candidate who seems
to have a chance of winning) and votes for a Compromise candidate in
addition to his Favorite (in order to keep Disliked from winning),
Compromise may win, whereas Favorite might have won if there were not
so many votes for Compromise.

By the way, allowing people to change their votes in Approval voting
serves the same function as pre-election polls.  If we had Approval
Voting as our public election method, I expect that candidates,
parties, special interest groups and the media would all want to have
polls that would accurately estimate the results of the election.  So,
I don't attach much weight to the criticism of Approval Voting that it
requires accurate polling data to vote optimally.  If we had AV,
poeople would supply the polling data.

In order to form an accurate estimate, the polling organizations would
probably need to obtain rankings from the people polled, and then try
to find the equilibrium, if one exists.

I believe there is not always an equilibrium, as I'll show in a separate post.

Cheers,
- Jan