[EM] Re: Definite Majority Choice

[Araucaria Araucana]

On  5 Apr 2005 at 12:13 UTC-0700, Chris Benham wrote:
> ASM is definitely equivalent to Approval Margins (AM) when there are
> no more than three candidates in the top cycle, and at least very
> similar when there are more.  Two examples of AWP giving a different
> result from AM have been posted recently. In both of them, AWP
> elected the least approved candidate. Both were composed by James
> G-A to advertise his method.  This is his most recent:
>
> 26: B>>D>K
> 22: B>>K>D
> 19: D>K>>B
> 6: D>>K>B
> 22: K>D>>B
> 5: K>>B>D
>
> B>D>K>B
> Approvals: B48, D47, K46.  AM/ASM elect B.
>
> Chris  Benham

And DMC also elects B.  Yes, AWP shows a decisive victory for Kerry:

AWP:  

     48 B>D
     46 K>B
      6 D>K

The D>K defeat is dropped, and B's burial of K to produce a cycle
backfires.  But I still think is trumped up.  This one relies on the 5
"K>>B>D" votes to produce the B>D part of the cycle.  B voters are
more likely to truncate than bury, if the effect would be to elect D.
I think a far more likely scenario is

48: B
19: D>K>>B
6:  D>>K>B
22: K>D>>B
5:  K

And even if somehow the B voters could second-guess the D and K voters
and arrange for that perfect strategic split, you're talking about
differences of 2%.  That is smaller than any poll margin of error.
Still too risky.

Ted
-- 
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