[EM] electoral college/Serious thoughts

[Alex Small]

Dave Ketchum said:
> Paul seems to offer nothing as to how his idea becomes salable to a
> state  such as NY, which now elects only Dem electors - while he wants
> NY to do  some Rep electors.

Excellent point!  I've said this before and I'll say it again:  The
electoral college's current configuration is more or less a Nash
equilibrium, because every state (or at least the dominant faction in
every state) has a vested interest in the status quo.

In NY or VT, the Democrats who dominate (at least in Presidential races)
have no incentive to go to a scheme that would give some electors to the
GOP.  In TX or UT, the Republicans who dominate (at least in Presidential
races) have no incentive to go to a scheme that would give some electors
to the Democrats.

And in FL and WI and other swing states, any sort of district or
proportional scheme would change the situation from significant blocs of
electoral votes that are up for grabs to instead only a handful of
electoral votes being up for grabs.  People on the left, right, and center
all have a lot at stake in those states.  Centrists obviously have
tremendous clout.  And liberals and conservatives can always threaten to
vote 3rd party.  Bush and Kerry don't care if I (a CA resident) vote 3rd
party.  But Kerry cares a great deal if a Democrat in FL or MN votes
Green, and Bush cares a great deal if a Republican in FL or MN votes
Libertarian or Constitution Party or whatever.

So, basically, no state has any incentive to go over to any sort of
district or proportional allocation.  Maine and Nebraska are exceptions,
but my understanding is that they only went over to these schemes
recently, and in practice they have rarely (never?) divided their
electoral votes.  Also, these states are politically unusual.  NB has a
unicameral and non-partisan legislature, and uses top-2 runoff for its
state offices.  ME elected 2 of the more liberal Republicans in the US
Senate, and twice elected as its governor the independent Angus King. 
(He's a cousin of Stephen King, for whatever it's worth.)


Anyway, if you then think of a popular election as a system where each
state has a number of electoral votes equal to the number of voters it
becomes clear that no state has any incentive to support popular election.
 And this analysis didn't say a word about the advantage given to small
states, showing that the bonus votes for small states (however problematic
they may be) are not the biggest obstacle to reform.

I want to emphasize that I am not defending the status quo, I'm just
expressing pessimism about reform.  If my analysis should turn out to be
wrong, and reform is indeed possible, I will be delighted.



Alex