[EM] James G.'s and Curt's strange prediction about your voting

[MIKE OSSIPOFF]

Here's James G.'s and Curt's prediction, if we were to hold a national 
runoff between a CW chosen by Condorcet, and the winner by IRV:

Say the candidates are Nader, Kerry, and Bush. Say Kerry is the CW (just an 
assumption to illustrate the prediction). Most people on EM prefer Nader to 
Kerry, and Kerry to Bush.

And say that Kerry, in the report of the IRV count, has the fewest 1st place 
votes, in the 1st IRV round, even though he's the CW.

Now, according to James G. & Curt, you will say, "What's this? I'm shocked 
that Kerry isn't a big favorite, with an enthusiastic broad base who 
consider him favorite! Bush has people who consider him favorite, and so, 
though Bush has been doing a lot of horrendous things, Kerry's lack of 
enthusiastic favorite support is much worse, and so I'm going to vote for 
Bush in the runoff."

Ridiculous? Yes.

Everyone I've spoken to about it says that they only vote for the Democrats 
as a lesser-evil, and that they must hold their nose in order to do so. That 
isn't what we call enthusiastic support for a favorite. But those same 
people vote for the Democrat anyway, because they'd much rather elect him 
than the Republican. That's common knowledge. They don't vote for Kerry 
because they think that he has a broad base of enthusiastic support as a big 
favorite.

Mike Ossipoff

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