[EM] The matter of whether people strategize

[Anthony Duff]

 --- Bart Ingles <bartman at netgate.net> wrote: > 
> Anthony Duff wrote:
> > 
> >  --- Bart Ingles <bartman at netgate.net> wrote: >
> > 

> > A typical voting pattern in some Australian electorates is
> > 45 ABC
> > 45 CBA
> > 5  BAC
> > 5  BCA
> > with B being readily eliminated under IRV.  I think there is an
> > instinct to bury the strongest challenger.
> > 
> > However, I think that if the voting method was suddenly changed
> to
> > condorcet then the voting pattern would change, with B being put
> last
> > a lot more often.
> 
> Are you saying that the ballots typically show a Condorcet winner
> being
> eliminated?  Surprising, even if it is an insincere CW.

Exactly, in many electorates (districts).  
In about half the electorates, a candidate is ranked first by a
majority.  In a good number of the remaining electorates, there are
two leading candidates.  Most people (maybe as many as 90%) vote
according to a major party "how to vote card", and in every IRV how
to vote card I've seen, the major parties rank the other major party
below the small centrist party.
I imagine that if condorcet were implemented without anyone noticing
then there could be quite a shock at the result.

Anthony


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