[EM] The matter of whether people strategize

[Bart Ingles]

Anthony Duff wrote:
> 
>  --- Bart Ingles <bartman at netgate.net> wrote: >
> 
> > >
> > On the other hand, I actually met an Australian lady who said that
> > she
> > regularly voted for minor candidates whom she didn't even like,
> > just to
> > keep her favorite major-party representative from getting too full
> > of
> > himself.
> 
> That would not be terribly unusual.  Representatives, and
> governments, take their primary vote very seriously, and if it is
> high enough they get confident/arrogant, and every policy statement
> they ever made becomes "mandated by the people", which means "how
> dare the opposition even question it".
> 
> I am surprised that the lady couldn't find a candidate that she
> liked, there are enough of them.  However, we are generally quite

My impression was that she actually preferred the major party
candidate.  She may not have disliked the minor candidate, but didn't
seem to take him very seriously.


> confident that our minor party candidate won't actually be elected,
> and I think that if there was actually a good chance of the minor
> candidate being elected then some people voting in protest would
> hestitate.
> 
> A typical voting pattern in some Australian electorates is
> 45 ABC
> 45 CBA
> 5  BAC
> 5  BCA
> with B being readily eliminated under IRV.  I think there is an
> instinct to bury the strongest challenger.
> 
> However, I think that if the voting method was suddenly changed to
> condorcet then the voting pattern would change, with B being put last
> a lot more often.

Are you saying that the ballots typically show a Condorcet winner being
eliminated?  Surprising, even if it is an insincere CW.

Bart