[EM] Swing Voters decide Primary of Major Parties
Donald E Davison
donald at mich.com
Wed May 19 07:30:51 PDT 1999
Greetings,
Bart wrote about Vermont's Two Member Distsricts:
"It's hard to believe that Plurality-At-Large could produce those
results. I wonder how?"
Dear Bart,
The answer to your question is the swing voters.
In a Plurality-at-Large election, if a party has fifty percent plus
one vote, that party will have the power to elect all the members. But, in
some of the Vermont Two Member districts the two elected members are of two
different parties. An example:
District: Windsor-2-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Lehman, Ralph W. Democratic 1176 27.4%
Kainen, Michael R. Republican 1170 27.3%
Bohi, Lynn Democratic 1139 26.6%
Trottier, Joe Republican 803 18.7%
Total Write-ins 2 0.0%
I conclude from this that no major party has fifty percent plus one.
In these districts the major parties each have a minority of the votes. The
balance is held by the swing voters, who are known as voters who will vote
for the candidate of one major party in one election and then maybe vote
for the candidate of another major party in the next election. Only in this
case these swing voters seem to be swinging their votes in the same
election. They are giving one of their votes to one candidate of one party
and then giving their second vote to a candidate of another party. There
are two possible reasons for this action.
Most people regard politics as a game of "Us against Them", but there
is a growing number of people who believe that all groups should be invited
to the table to decide government policy. Some of these swing voters may be
exercising this belief by making a point of voting for two different
parties with their two votes.
The other reason is that some swing voters are voting for the two best
candidates regardless of party. At times the result will be two elected
members from two different parties.
The major parties will run two candidates because the party expects to
capture the two seats, but the swing voters treat this as a primary inside
the general election. The swing voters are deciding which candidate is to
be the top candidate for each major party.
While it was not the law in Vermont for a primary to be included in
the general election, it has worked out to be so for these cases, and if I
may add, I feel it works nicely. I have long favored having the primary
inside the general election. That is something I ask everyone to consider.
This example and the examples below show that having the primary in the
general election is both workable and acceptable.
Below are the results of all the Two Member Districts for anyone to
examine, including many examples of two different parties gaining a seat in
the same district. (Republican/Democratic means the candidate was nominated
by two parties.)
Regards,
Donald
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Vermont Two Member Districts
General Election Results '98 For State Representative
District: Addison-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Houston, Connie T. Republican/Democratic 2750 51.6%
McGrath, Thomas L. "Tom" Republican/Democratic 2533 47.5%
Total Write-ins 49 0.9%
District: Addison-4-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Nuovo, Betty Democratic 1462 31.9%
Ginevan, Anne Republican 1330 29.0%
Foley, Sally Republican 933 20.3%
Reiff, Helen H. Democratic 859 18.7%
Total Write-ins 2 0.0%
District: Bennington-2-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Pembroke, Richard C. "Dick", Sr. Democratic/Republican 1790 45.5%
Colvin, Jim Democratic 1332 33.9%
Jones, Francis 'Shep' Republican 796 20.2%
Total Write-ins 17 0.4%
District: Bennington-2-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Morrissey, Mary A. Republican 1560 51.6%
Krawczyk, Albert C. Democratic 1452 48.1%
Total Write-ins 9 0.3%
District: Caledonia-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Clark, David T. Republican 1862 49.9%
Sherman, Joseph M. Republican 1814 48.6%
Total Write-ins 57 1.5%
District: Caledonia-4 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Hudson, Cola H. Republican 1849 49.7%
Crawford, Howard T. Republican 1761 47.3%
Total Write-ins 111 3.0%
District: Chittenden-1-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Vinton, Michael C. Democratic 1392 28.8%
Severance, Malcolm Republican 1372 28.4%
Conant, Sam Democratic 1195 24.7%
Purvis, Joey A. Republican 860 17.8%
Total Write-ins 10 0.2%
District: Chittenden-1-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Dakin, Maureen P. Democratic 1059 28.5%
Schaefer, Hank Republican 918 24.7%
Stafford, Bill Republican 887 23.9%
Fontaine, Jennifer (Jenn) Democratic 844 22.7%
Total Write-ins 4 0.1%
District: Chittenden-1-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Atkins, Kenneth Democratic 1069 34.4%
Cross, George C. Democratic 1042 33.5%
Brunelle, Donald Republican 748 24.1%
Sourdiff, Carl L. Independent 240 7.7%
Total Write-ins 7 0.2%
District: Chittenden-2-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Fox, Sally G. Democratic 1810 30.7%
Sweetser, Gene Republican 1538 26.1%
Fitz Gerald, John C. Republican 1443 24.5%
Kalanges, Bill Democratic 1093 18.6%
Total Write-ins 8 0.1%
District: Chittenden-2-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Metzger, Doran Republican 1882 42.5%
Rivero, Marilyn Keith Democratic 1059 23.9%
Delaney, Steve Democratic 912 20.6%
Palm, Diana L. Republican 569 12.9%
Total Write-ins 3 0.1%
District: Chittenden-2-4 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Blanchard, Rene L. Democratic 1414 26.0%
Parizo, Mary-Ann Democratic 1393 25.6%
Kirker, Linda Republican 1351 24.8%
Corbin, Michael Republican 1177 21.6%
Chappelow, Joana Libertarian 102 1.9%
Total Write-ins 8 0.1%
District: Chittenden-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Symington, Gaye R. Democratic 2205 31.3%
Hummel, Margaret P. Democratic 2078 29.5%
Audet, Mike, Sr. Republican 1416 20.1%
Dasaro, Robert A. Republican 1327 18.9%
Total Write-ins 9 0.1%
District: Chittenden-7-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Sullivan, Mary M. Democratic 1891 42.5%
Lafayette, Karen Moran Democratic 1816 40.8%
McDermott, Jill R. Republican 726 16.3%
Total Write-ins 20 0.4%
District: Chittenden-7-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Tracy, John Patrick Democratic 1173 31.8%
Hingtgen, Steve Progressive 983 26.7%
Heyman, Mark Democratic 919 24.9%
Schramm, Don Progressive 598 16.2%
Total Write-ins 13 0.4%
District: Chittenden-7-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Zuckerman, Dave Progressive 1021 47.5%
Corren, Dean Progressive 1010 47.0%
Total Write-ins 118 5.5%
District: Chittenden-7-6 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Aswad, Bill Democratic 2074 50.3%
Gretkowski, Henry J. (Hank) Democratic 1965 47.7%
Total Write-ins 82 2.0%
District: Franklin-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Gervais, Avis Democratic 1708 34.4%
Perry, Albert Joseph Democratic 1596 32.1%
Perley, Peter E. Republican 877 17.7%
Larose, Joseph (Whitey) Republican 778 15.7%
Total Write-ins 7 0.1%
District: Franklin-3-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Keenan, Kathleen C. Democratic/Republican 1657 47.9%
Willett, James Democratic/Republican 1502 43.4%
Hughes-Isham, Karlene J. Libertarian 286 8.3%
Total Write-ins 15 0.4%
District: Franklin-Grand Isle-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Robb, John Republican/Democratic 1944 49.9%
Edwards, John R. Republican/Democratic 1934 49.6%
Total Write-ins 21 0.5%
District: Lamoille-2-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Voyer, Cathy Republican 2327 36.6%
Marron, Richard C. Republican 2311 36.4%
Huard, Frank E. Democratic 924 14.5%
Heuer, Stacey Democratic 789 12.4%
Total Write-ins 4 0.1%
District: Orange-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Angell, Philip A., Jr. Republican 1285 28.1%
Mallary, Richard W. Republican 1215 26.6%
Fiorillo, Michael J. Democratic 1041 22.8%
Robbins, Genie Democratic 1028 22.5%
Total Write-ins 6 0.1%
District: Orange-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Milne, Marion C. Republican/Democratic 1361 45.9%
Winters, Philip C. Republican 951 32.1%
McGlynn, Edward Democratic 642 21.6%
Total Write-ins 13 0.4%
District: Orleans-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Sheltra, Nancy J. Republican 1396 29.4%
Postman, Barbara Democratic 1255 26.5%
Walker, Robert Taylor Republican 1101 23.2%
Shattuck, Beula-jean Democratic 980 20.7%
Total Write-ins 11 0.2%
District: Orleans-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Buckland, Forest A. Republican 1308 29.9%
Fyfe, William "Bill" Republican 1158 26.5%
Choiniere, Reynold R. Democratic 1091 25.0%
Stelter, Tom Democratic 655 15.0%
Rogers, Jack-Albert: Vermont Grassroots Party 142 3.3%
Total Write-ins 14 0.3%
District: Orleans-Caledonia-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Hathaway, David C. Republican/Democratic 1966 37.6%
Kinsey, Robert E. Republican 1411 27.0%
Goodridge, Kevin Independent 1164 22.2%
Hadash, Brendan Democratic 680 13.0%
Total Write-ins 12 0.2%
District: Rutland-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Helm, Robert "Bob" Republican 1534 42.8%
Pratt, Arthur D. Republican 1029 28.7%
Eagan, Patrick H. Democratic 1000 27.9%
Total Write-ins 19 0.5%
District: Rutland-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Wood, Robert H., Jr. Republican 1720 37.4%
Flory, Peg Republican 1502 32.7%
Snyder, Andy Democratic 1078 23.5%
Harrington, Jez Democratic 293 6.4%
Total Write-ins 3 0.1%
District: Rutland-6-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Moore, Karen J. Democratic/Republican 1319 51.1%
Kreitzer, Jerry Democratic/Republican 1262 48.9%
District: Rutland-7 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Baker, Joseph Republican 1362 27.7%
Deuel, Danny Democratic 1328 27.0%
Klopchin, Michael J. Democratic 1220 24.8%
Moser, Michael Republican 1004 20.4%
Total Write-ins 5 0.1%
District: Washington-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Knox, Paul B. Republican 1536 33.6%
Weiss, Alan H. Democratic 1520 33.2%
Bruley, David (Dave) Republican 771 16.8%
Drown, Larry Democratic 736 16.1%
Total Write-ins 13 0.3%
District: Washington-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Alfano, Elaine R. Democratic/Republican 2077 36.6%
Osman, Donny Democratic 1813 32.0%
Hudson, Dave Republican 1411 24.9%
O'Donnell, Don Libertarian 249 4.4%
Tanstaafl, David S. Libertarian 107 1.9%
Total Write-ins 13 0.2%
District: Washington-3 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Koch, Thomas F. Republican 1495 27.7%
Gray, Henry L. Republican 1420 26.3%
Castle, Charles "Chip" Democratic 1318 24.4%
Clain, George Democratic 1102 20.4%
Hammond, Anthony David Libertarian 51 0.9%
Total Write-ins 9 0.2%
District: Washington-4-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Towne, Ruth H. Republican 1609 44.9%
Valsangiacomo, Oreste V., Sr. Democratic 1547 43.2%
Arnold, Charles Libertarian 391 10.9%
Total Write-ins 33 0.9%
District: Washington-5 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Brooks, Francis K. Democratic 2490 41.3%
Kitzmiller, Karen B. Democratic 2449 40.6%
Sparrow, Thomas R. Democratic 858 14.2%
Hooper, Andy Libertarian 222 3.7%
Total Write-ins 9 0.1%
District: Washington-Chit.-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Vincent, Val Democratic 2109 44.8%
Steele, Karen K. Republican 1858 39.5%
Button, Vaughn C. Libertarian 700 14.9%
Total Write-ins 41 0.9%
District: Windham-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Darrow, Steve Democratic 1786 37.9%
Deen, David L. Democratic 1592 33.8%
Fine, Stephen Republican 624 13.3%
Oftedahl, Douglas L. , Jr. Republican 566 12.0%
Cutler, Eddie Libertarian 133 2.8%
Total Write-ins 8 0.2%
District: Windsor-2-2 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Lehman, Ralph W. Democratic 1176 27.4%
Kainen, Michael R. Republican 1170 27.3%
Bohi, Lynn Democratic 1139 26.6%
Trottier, Joe Republican 803 18.7%
Total Write-ins 2 0.0%
District: Windsor-6 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Emmons, Alice M. Democratic 1586 32.0%
Follett, John E. Republican 1404 28.4%
Sysko, Steven J. Democratic 1074 21.7%
Poole, Frank Republican 882 17.8%
Total Write-ins 3 0.1%
District: Windsor-Orange-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Mackinnon, Bill Democratic 2082 33.0%
Seibert, Ann Democratic 2053 32.6%
Kenyon, Brian Republican 1353 21.5%
Corwin, G. Lester II Republican 806 12.8%
Total Write-ins 7 0.1%
District: Windsor-Windham-1-1 Number of seats: 2 District Results
Obuchowski, Michael J. Democratic 2047 41.1%
Partridge, Carolyn W. Democratic 1243 25.0%
Soboleski, Edward S. Democratic 924 18.6%
Kuusela, George M. Republican 764 15.3%
+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+
T H E C O D E O F H O N O R F O R R E F O R M A C T I V I S T S
Any group of reform activists that are thinking about a petition drive
to place a proposal on the ballot are to present their proposal beforehand
to all other reform activists that they know of. The time for debate and
negative comments is before the petition stage. Once the group makes its
final proposal and enters the petition stage, the debates and negative
comments by all reform activists is to cease.
At this time each activist is to make an honest evaluation. If the
initiative will improve government then each activist is to find it in his
heart to support the initiative, even if it is not exactly what the
activist would like.
+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+
| Q U O T A T I O N |
| "Democracy is a beautiful thing, |
| except that part about letting just any old yokel vote." |
| - Age 10 |
+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+=+
N E W S L E T T E R
Worldwide Direct Democracy Newsletter
Four Issues per Year by Postal Mail
Cost per year: Czech Republic 200 Kc, Europe 12 DM
Outside of Europe $10
Make check payable to: Account Number 13164-30-01
Mail to: (Polak Jiri,ded)
Ceska sporitelna, a.s.
Jugoslavska 19
Praha2, Czech Republic
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
N E W D E M O C R A C Y
A Source of Study Material for Political Change
http://www.mich.com/~donald
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
More information about the Election-Methods
mailing list