[EM] Swing Voters decide Primary of Major Parties

Donald E Davison donald at mich.com
Wed May 19 07:30:51 PDT 1999


Greetings,

Bart wrote about Vermont's Two Member Distsricts:
     "It's hard to believe that Plurality-At-Large could produce those
results.  I wonder how?"

Dear Bart,

     The answer to your question is the swing voters.

     In a Plurality-at-Large election, if a party has fifty percent plus
one vote, that party will have the power to elect all the members. But, in
some of the Vermont Two Member districts the two elected members are of two
different parties. An example:

District: Windsor-2-2            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Lehman, Ralph W.                    Democratic                  1176  27.4%
Kainen, Michael R.                  Republican                  1170  27.3%
Bohi, Lynn                          Democratic                  1139  26.6%
Trottier, Joe                       Republican                   803  18.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    2   0.0%

     I conclude from this that no major party has fifty percent plus one.
In these districts the major parties each have a minority of the votes. The
balance is held by the swing voters, who are known as voters who will vote
for the candidate of one major party in one election and then maybe vote
for the candidate of another major party in the next election. Only in this
case these swing voters seem to be swinging their votes in the same
election. They are giving one of their votes to one candidate of one party
and then giving their second vote to a candidate of another party. There
are two possible reasons for this action.
     Most people regard politics as a game of "Us against Them", but there
is a growing number of people who believe that all groups should be invited
to the table to decide government policy. Some of these swing voters may be
exercising this belief by making a point of voting for two different
parties with their two votes.
     The other reason is that some swing voters are voting for the two best
candidates regardless of party. At times the result will be two elected
members from two different parties.

     The major parties will run two candidates because the party expects to
capture the two seats, but the swing voters treat this as a primary inside
the general election. The swing voters are deciding which candidate is to
be the top candidate for each major party.
     While it was not the law in Vermont for a primary to be included in
the general election, it has worked out to be so for these cases, and if I
may add, I feel it works nicely. I have long favored having the primary
inside the general election. That is something I ask everyone to consider.
This example and the examples below show that having the primary in the
general election is both workable and acceptable.

     Below are the results of all the Two Member Districts for anyone to
examine, including many examples of two different parties gaining a seat in
the same district. (Republican/Democratic means the candidate was nominated
by two parties.)

Regards,
Donald
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Vermont Two Member Districts
General Election Results '98 For State Representative

District: Addison-1              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Houston, Connie T.                  Republican/Democratic       2750  51.6%
McGrath, Thomas L. "Tom"            Republican/Democratic       2533  47.5%
Total Write-ins                                                   49   0.9%

District: Addison-4-2            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Nuovo, Betty                        Democratic                  1462  31.9%
Ginevan, Anne                       Republican                  1330  29.0%
Foley, Sally                        Republican                   933  20.3%
Reiff, Helen H.                     Democratic                   859  18.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    2   0.0%

District: Bennington-2-1         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Pembroke, Richard C. "Dick", Sr.    Democratic/Republican       1790  45.5%
Colvin, Jim                         Democratic                  1332  33.9%
Jones, Francis 'Shep'               Republican                   796  20.2%
Total Write-ins                                                   17   0.4%

District: Bennington-2-3         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Morrissey, Mary A.                  Republican                  1560  51.6%
Krawczyk, Albert C.                 Democratic                  1452  48.1%
Total Write-ins                                                    9   0.3%

District: Caledonia-2            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Clark, David T.                     Republican                  1862  49.9%
Sherman, Joseph M.                  Republican                  1814  48.6%
Total Write-ins                                                   57   1.5%

District: Caledonia-4            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Hudson, Cola H.                     Republican                  1849  49.7%
Crawford, Howard T.                 Republican                  1761  47.3%
Total Write-ins                                                  111   3.0%

District: Chittenden-1-1         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Vinton, Michael C.                  Democratic                  1392  28.8%
Severance, Malcolm                  Republican                  1372  28.4%
Conant, Sam                         Democratic                  1195  24.7%
Purvis, Joey A.                     Republican                   860  17.8%
Total Write-ins                                                   10   0.2%

District: Chittenden-1-2         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Dakin, Maureen P.                   Democratic                  1059  28.5%
Schaefer, Hank                      Republican                   918  24.7%
Stafford, Bill                      Republican                   887  23.9%
Fontaine, Jennifer (Jenn)           Democratic                   844  22.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    4   0.1%

District: Chittenden-1-3         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Atkins, Kenneth                     Democratic                  1069  34.4%
Cross, George C.                    Democratic                  1042  33.5%
Brunelle, Donald                    Republican                   748  24.1%
Sourdiff, Carl L.                   Independent                  240   7.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    7   0.2%

District: Chittenden-2-1         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Fox, Sally G.                       Democratic                  1810  30.7%
Sweetser, Gene                      Republican                  1538  26.1%
Fitz Gerald, John C.                Republican                  1443  24.5%
Kalanges, Bill                      Democratic                  1093  18.6%
Total Write-ins                                                    8   0.1%

District: Chittenden-2-2         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Metzger, Doran                      Republican                  1882  42.5%
Rivero, Marilyn Keith               Democratic                  1059  23.9%
Delaney, Steve                      Democratic                   912  20.6%
Palm, Diana L.                      Republican                   569  12.9%
Total Write-ins                                                    3   0.1%

District: Chittenden-2-4         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Blanchard, Rene L.                  Democratic                  1414  26.0%
Parizo, Mary-Ann                    Democratic                  1393  25.6%
Kirker, Linda                       Republican                  1351  24.8%
Corbin, Michael                     Republican                  1177  21.6%
Chappelow, Joana                    Libertarian                  102   1.9%
Total Write-ins                                                    8   0.1%

District: Chittenden-3           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Symington, Gaye R.                  Democratic                  2205  31.3%
Hummel, Margaret P.                 Democratic                  2078  29.5%
Audet, Mike, Sr.                    Republican                  1416  20.1%
Dasaro, Robert A.                   Republican                  1327  18.9%
Total Write-ins                                                    9   0.1%

District: Chittenden-7-1         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Sullivan, Mary M.                   Democratic                  1891  42.5%
Lafayette, Karen Moran              Democratic                  1816  40.8%
McDermott, Jill R.                  Republican                   726  16.3%
Total Write-ins                                                   20   0.4%

District: Chittenden-7-2         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Tracy, John Patrick                 Democratic                  1173  31.8%
Hingtgen, Steve                     Progressive                  983  26.7%
Heyman, Mark                        Democratic                   919  24.9%
Schramm, Don                        Progressive                  598  16.2%
Total Write-ins                                                   13   0.4%

District: Chittenden-7-3         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Zuckerman, Dave                     Progressive                 1021  47.5%
Corren, Dean                        Progressive                 1010  47.0%
Total Write-ins                                                  118   5.5%

District: Chittenden-7-6         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Aswad, Bill                         Democratic                  2074  50.3%
Gretkowski, Henry J. (Hank)         Democratic                  1965  47.7%
Total Write-ins                                                   82   2.0%

District: Franklin-2             Number of seats:  2       District Results
Gervais, Avis                       Democratic                  1708  34.4%
Perry, Albert Joseph                Democratic                  1596  32.1%
Perley, Peter E.                    Republican                   877  17.7%
Larose, Joseph (Whitey)             Republican                   778  15.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    7   0.1%

District: Franklin-3-1           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Keenan, Kathleen C.                 Democratic/Republican       1657  47.9%
Willett, James                      Democratic/Republican       1502  43.4%
Hughes-Isham, Karlene J.            Libertarian                  286   8.3%
Total Write-ins                                                   15   0.4%

District: Franklin-Grand Isle-1  Number of seats:  2       District Results
Robb, John                          Republican/Democratic       1944  49.9%
Edwards, John R.                    Republican/Democratic       1934  49.6%
Total Write-ins                                                   21   0.5%

District: Lamoille-2-2           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Voyer, Cathy                        Republican                  2327  36.6%
Marron, Richard C.                  Republican                  2311  36.4%
Huard, Frank E.                     Democratic                   924  14.5%
Heuer, Stacey                       Democratic                   789  12.4%
Total Write-ins                                                    4   0.1%

District: Orange-1               Number of seats:  2       District Results
Angell, Philip A., Jr.              Republican                  1285  28.1%
Mallary, Richard W.                 Republican                  1215  26.6%
Fiorillo, Michael J.                Democratic                  1041  22.8%
Robbins, Genie                      Democratic                  1028  22.5%
Total Write-ins                                                    6   0.1%

District: Orange-2               Number of seats:  2       District Results
Milne, Marion C.                    Republican/Democratic       1361  45.9%
Winters, Philip C.                  Republican                   951  32.1%
McGlynn, Edward                     Democratic                   642  21.6%
Total Write-ins                                                   13   0.4%

District: Orleans-1              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Sheltra, Nancy J.                   Republican                  1396  29.4%
Postman, Barbara                    Democratic                  1255  26.5%
Walker, Robert Taylor               Republican                  1101  23.2%
Shattuck, Beula-jean                Democratic                   980  20.7%
Total Write-ins                                                   11   0.2%

District: Orleans-2              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Buckland, Forest A.                 Republican                  1308  29.9%
Fyfe, William "Bill"                Republican                  1158  26.5%
Choiniere, Reynold R.               Democratic                  1091  25.0%
Stelter, Tom                        Democratic                   655  15.0%
Rogers, Jack-Albert:                Vermont Grassroots Party     142   3.3%
Total Write-ins                                                   14   0.3%

District: Orleans-Caledonia-1    Number of seats:  2       District Results
Hathaway, David C.                  Republican/Democratic       1966  37.6%
Kinsey, Robert E.                   Republican                  1411  27.0%
Goodridge, Kevin                    Independent                 1164  22.2%
Hadash, Brendan                     Democratic                   680  13.0%
Total Write-ins                                                   12   0.2%

District: Rutland-1              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Helm, Robert "Bob"                  Republican                  1534  42.8%
Pratt, Arthur D.                    Republican                  1029  28.7%
Eagan, Patrick H.                   Democratic                  1000  27.9%
Total Write-ins                                                   19   0.5%

District: Rutland-2              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Wood, Robert H., Jr.                Republican                  1720  37.4%
Flory, Peg                          Republican                  1502  32.7%
Snyder, Andy                        Democratic                  1078  23.5%
Harrington, Jez                     Democratic                   293   6.4%
Total Write-ins                                                    3   0.1%

District: Rutland-6-3            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Moore, Karen J.                     Democratic/Republican       1319  51.1%
Kreitzer, Jerry                     Democratic/Republican       1262  48.9%

District: Rutland-7              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Baker, Joseph                       Republican                  1362  27.7%
Deuel, Danny                        Democratic                  1328  27.0%
Klopchin, Michael J.                Democratic                  1220  24.8%
Moser, Michael                      Republican                  1004  20.4%
Total Write-ins                                                    5   0.1%

District: Washington-1           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Knox, Paul B.                       Republican                  1536  33.6%
Weiss, Alan H.                      Democratic                  1520  33.2%
Bruley, David (Dave)                Republican                   771  16.8%
Drown, Larry                        Democratic                   736  16.1%
Total Write-ins                                                   13   0.3%

District: Washington-2           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Alfano, Elaine R.                   Democratic/Republican       2077  36.6%
Osman, Donny                        Democratic                  1813  32.0%
Hudson, Dave                        Republican                  1411  24.9%
O'Donnell, Don                      Libertarian                  249   4.4%
Tanstaafl, David S.                 Libertarian                  107   1.9%
Total Write-ins                                                   13   0.2%

District: Washington-3           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Koch, Thomas F.                     Republican                  1495  27.7%
Gray, Henry L.                      Republican                  1420  26.3%
Castle, Charles "Chip"              Democratic                  1318  24.4%
Clain, George                       Democratic                  1102  20.4%
Hammond, Anthony David              Libertarian                   51   0.9%
Total Write-ins                                                    9   0.2%

District: Washington-4-2         Number of seats:  2       District Results
Towne, Ruth H.                      Republican                  1609  44.9%
Valsangiacomo, Oreste V., Sr.       Democratic                  1547  43.2%
Arnold, Charles                     Libertarian                  391  10.9%
Total Write-ins                                                   33   0.9%

District: Washington-5           Number of seats:  2       District Results
Brooks, Francis K.                  Democratic                  2490  41.3%
Kitzmiller, Karen B.                Democratic                  2449  40.6%
Sparrow, Thomas R.                  Democratic                   858  14.2%
Hooper, Andy                        Libertarian                  222   3.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    9   0.1%

District: Washington-Chit.-1     Number of seats:  2       District Results
Vincent, Val                        Democratic                  2109  44.8%
Steele, Karen K.                    Republican                  1858  39.5%
Button, Vaughn C.                   Libertarian                  700  14.9%
Total Write-ins                                                   41   0.9%

District: Windham-1              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Darrow, Steve                       Democratic                  1786  37.9%
Deen, David L.                      Democratic                  1592  33.8%
Fine, Stephen                       Republican                   624  13.3%
Oftedahl, Douglas L. , Jr.          Republican                   566  12.0%
Cutler, Eddie                       Libertarian                  133   2.8%
Total Write-ins                                                    8   0.2%

District: Windsor-2-2            Number of seats:  2       District Results
Lehman, Ralph W.                    Democratic                  1176  27.4%
Kainen, Michael R.                  Republican                  1170  27.3%
Bohi, Lynn                          Democratic                  1139  26.6%
Trottier, Joe                       Republican                   803  18.7%
Total Write-ins                                                    2   0.0%

District: Windsor-6              Number of seats:  2       District Results
Emmons, Alice M.                    Democratic                  1586  32.0%
Follett, John E.                    Republican                  1404  28.4%
Sysko, Steven J.                    Democratic                  1074  21.7%
Poole, Frank                        Republican                   882  17.8%
Total Write-ins                                                    3   0.1%

District: Windsor-Orange-1       Number of seats:  2       District Results
Mackinnon, Bill                     Democratic                  2082  33.0%
Seibert, Ann                        Democratic                  2053  32.6%
Kenyon, Brian                       Republican                  1353  21.5%
Corwin, G. Lester II                Republican                   806  12.8%
Total Write-ins                                                    7   0.1%

District: Windsor-Windham-1-1    Number of seats:  2       District Results
Obuchowski, Michael J.              Democratic                  2047  41.1%
Partridge, Carolyn W.               Democratic                  1243  25.0%
Soboleski, Edward S.                Democratic                   924  18.6%
Kuusela, George M.                  Republican                   764  15.3%






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 T H E   C O D E   O F   H O N O R   F O R   R E F O R M   A C T I V I S T S

     Any group of reform activists that are thinking about a petition drive
to place a proposal on the ballot are to present their proposal beforehand
to all other reform activists that they know of. The time for debate and
negative comments is before the petition stage. Once the group makes its
final proposal and enters the petition stage, the debates and negative
comments by all reform activists is to cease.
    At this time each activist is to make an honest evaluation. If the
initiative will improve government then each activist is to find it in his
heart to support the initiative, even if it is not exactly what the
activist would like.

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   |                         Q U O T A T I O N                         |
   |  "Democracy is a beautiful thing,                                 |
   |       except that part about letting just any old yokel vote."    |
   |                            - Age 10                               |
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