[EM] Request for help: List of Pathological Elections

[Closed Limelike Curves]

Hi rb-j, I agree with you on that point. A spoiler effect is an IIA failure.

I addressed some of your concerns here, including the ones about FPTP. For
plurality elections, standard Wiki rules apply; you need a reliable source
saying "Ralph Nader spoiled the election", backed up with evidence like
polling, rather than literal mathematical proof in the form of the exact
ballots.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Draft_talk:List_of_pathological_elections#What_exactly_is_a_pathology
?

On Mon, May 6, 2024 at 12:32 PM robert bristow-johnson <
rbj at audioimagination.com> wrote:

>
>
> > On 05/06/2024 3:30 PM EDT robert bristow-johnson <
> rbj at audioimagination.com> wrote:
> >
> >
> > It is my opinion that "Plurality" and "First-Past-The-Post" are
> synonymous.
> >
> > But looking at your Wiki page, I am concerned in how you would ever know
> for certain an election is spoiled with FPTP.  I mean, like Florida 2000,
> perhaps the Ralph Nader voters would have split even up between George W
> Bush and Al Gore.  Not likely, but we don't know without the ranked ballot.
> >
> > But for the RCV elections in which the Condorcet Winner is not elected
> (whether the CW exists or not), we *know* from the ranked ballot data that
> the election was spoiled and we know exactly how.
> >
> > But we can't know it with FPTP without speculating how voters for the
> ostensible spoiler would have voted had their candidate not run.
> >
> > BTW don't let FairVote mislead you about "redefining" the spoiler
> effect.  A "spoiler" is a candidate who loses an election but, simply
> because of they were a candidate in the election, they materially change
> the winner of the election.  Burlington 2009 and Alaska August 2022 and
> Minneapolis Ward 2 in 2021 and Oakland School Bard District 4 in 2022 were
> all objectively spoiled elections because the Condorcet Winner was not
> elected.  But in the latter two, there was no CW and, in the cycle, the
> spoiler is always the candidate that winner would defeat in a head-to-head
> runoff.
>
> Forgot to reference the FairVote bullshit:
> https://fairvote.org/defining-the-spoiler-effect/
>
> Don't go for this shit.
>
> --
>
> r b-j . _ . _ . _ . _ rbj at audioimagination.com
>
> "Imagination is more important than knowledge."
>
> .
> .
> .
>
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