[EM] Internet polls & greater-evils

[Michael Garman]

Nope! As we established in my email April 11, a majority of the polls in
the 538 tracker ask about third party candidates. Oops!!

And approval polls show Trump around 42%, not your “nearly 30%.” Double
oops!!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

On Sun, Apr 28, 2024 at 1:11 AM Michael Garman <
michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:

> Nope! As we established in my email April 11, a majority of the polls in
> the 538 tracker ask about third party candidates. Oops!!
>
> And approval polls show Trump around 42%, not your “nearly 30%.” Double
> oops!!
>
> https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
>
> On Sun, Apr 28, 2024 at 1:07 AM Michael Ossipoff <email9648742 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> …& you’re looking at Trump vs Biden poll results, not total absolute
>> Trump approval.
>>
>> But Biden’s unpopular too. Your polls don’t ask people to compare Trump
>> to Stein. They know better than to ask that.
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Apr 27, 2024 at 16:01 Michael Ossipoff <email9648742 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sat, Apr 27, 2024 at 15:58 Michael Garman <
>>> michael.garman at rankthevote.us> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Nice and dishonest as always, Mike! “Nearly 30%” isn’t even close to
>>>> the 45% or so he’s polling at in most real polls.
>>>>
>>>> I want you to be right. I really do. But you’re not, and you know
>>>> you’re making disingenuous arguments to support your claim.
>>>>
>>>
>>> I was quoting the usual media poll results. You’re getting your
>>> information from some Trump-blog that you follow.
>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Sun, Apr 28, 2024 at 12:55 AM Michael Ossipoff <
>>>> email9648742 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I’ve pointed out that you don’t need the Democrat to keep the
>>>>> Republican from winning, because the Republican always finishes at the
>>>>> BOTTOM in the output-ranking of Internet polls. …& is Condorcet loser.
>>>>> Every time.
>>>>>
>>>>> Some claim that’s sampling-bias. Someone here recently claimed that.
>>>>>
>>>>> But, as exemplified by the current CIVS poll “2024 presidential
>>>>> election”, that claim is contradicted by the Republican’s support.
>>>>>
>>>>> e.g. In the a abovementioned current poll, Trump is voted over the
>>>>> other candidates by nearly 30% of the voters, & is approved by nearly 30%.
>>>>>
>>>>> (That poll has “approval-line” as a candidate.)
>>>>>
>>>>> That’s close to what we hear is so in the actual voting population.
>>>>> Doesn’t sound to me like a biased sample.
>>>>>
>>>>> But the Republican, in that poll & always, finishes at bottom & is
>>>>> Condorcet loser.
>>>>>
>>>>> …& couldn’t possibly beat any progressive candidate.
>>>>>
>>>>> So vote honestly. You don’t need a lesser-evil.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> ----
>>>>> Election-Methods mailing list - see https://electorama.com/em for
>>>>> list info
>>>>>
>>>>
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