[EM] Sequential-Pairwise offensive & defensive strategy?

[Michael Ossipoff]

Hi Rob—

…

You wrote:

…

[quote]

Oh Michael...where do I begin?  Your apparent move to the dark side makes
me sad.  I realize that this intro may sound condescending, but I truly
don't mean it that way.  I deeply respect your opinion. YOU were the one
who taught me about "center squeeze" in 1995 or so, and made me rethink
AV/PV/IRV/RCV (or whatever the name of the week is).

[/quote]

…

Yes, earlier I was quite critical of RCV (called IRV in those days, before
San Francisco insisted on RCV, because “instant” was misleading people to
expect an instantaneous count).

…

I was wrong.

…

You know that often the relative merits, advantages & disadvantages of
single-winner methods aren’t what they at first seem. Never be prematurely
sure that someone is wrong about such matters.

…

But I would like to remind you that I also continue to say that Condorcet,
in its best versions, is my favorite, because, always electing the CW, it
best gets rid of the lesser-of-2-evils problem (LO2E) for any & every  kind
of voter, thereby accommodating even the most timid LO2E giveaway voter.

…

As I said, RCV only works & has merit if the voters aren’t timid
overcomromising LO2E giveaway voters.

…

I don’t deny that Condorcet-failure is a disadvantage, but, with a good
electorate, it doesn’t matter. I used to say that Approval’s equal-givaway,
amounting to an abstention between Favorite & Lesser-Evil, is better than
RCV’s favorite-burial…but not if you have an electorate that won’t do the
burial !!!

…

Approval & STAR encourage Mr. Timid to do giveaway. RCV encourages everyone
to be frank, honest, ambitious, hopeful !!!

…

…because, as I said, that won’t be a problem, because an electorate that
has enacted RCV didn’t do so because they want & intend to vote a
hold-you-nose lesser-evil over their favorite (They can & do do that now,
in Plurality). If they enact RCV it’s because they want & intend to
sincerely rank the candidates, expressing & fully-supporting their favorite.


…

…& so THEY WILL DO SO !!!

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So don’t worry about LO2E strategy in RCV voting.

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Anti-RCVists often say that RCV doesn’t really honor majority.

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But, as I’ve been saying, though RCV doesn’t meet the Condorcet Criterion,
it meets the Mutual-Majority Criterion (MMC).  Let me state an improved &
expanded definition of MMC:

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MMC:

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If there are 1 or more sets of candidates such that a majority of the
voters prefer the candidates of that set to everyone outside the set, then
the winner should come from such a set.

…

(Then it goes without saying that, when there’s a Mutual-Majority (defined
below) the winner will come from that Mutual-Majority.)

…

 [end of MMC definition]

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A majority who all prefer some set of candidates to everyone outside that
set, I call an Agreeing-Majority.

…

A majority who all prefer *the same* set of candidates to everyone outside
that set, I call a  Mutual-Majority.

…

(Arguably a weaker definition of a Mutual-Majority would do: A majority who
all prefer all of their favorites to everyone outside the set of all their
favorites.)

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When there are 1 or more Agreeing-Majorities, RCV always elects the
candidate of the largest faction of  an Agreeing-Majority.

…

i.e. under those conditions, RCV always elects the favorite of an
Agreeing-Majority.

…

RCV always elects the candidate of the largest faction of the
Mutual-Majority.

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i.e. RCV always elects the favorite of the Mutual-Majority.

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That candidate isn’t an unpopular extremist, but instead has strong genuine
majority coalition support, as defined above.

…

[quote]

I just think you're incorrect about FairVote.

[/quote]

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I didn’t say anything about FairVote.

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Whether you like FairVote or not, that has no bearing on the merits of RCV.

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FairVote, from the start, has insisted on offering the traditional RCV.  We
should respect that choice. RCV has about a century of precedent in
Australia & Ireland. Proposing a traditional method with long precedent is
a valid practical choice, & one that we should respect.

…

…& that proposal has been enormously successful, & is sweeping this
country. Maybe its century of traditional precedent has something to do
with its success.

…

When RCV was  initially being adopted, of course there were no computers, &
so Condorcet’s complete pairwise-count would be infeasible in a large
election. Sure, the Sequential-Pairwise (SP) pairwise-count only needs
about twice as much vote-counting as RCV.

…

(Approval, Score, STAR & RCV all need roughly the same amount of
vote-counting (they all vary greatly), & SP needs about twice as much.)

…

Maybe people didn’t want twice as much vote-counting. Or maybe they were
afraid that SP would be rejected because of its Pareto violation (which I
consider irrelevant, just like MinMax’s Condorcet-Loser violation).

…

Then there’s Coombs, which I guess would have about the same amount of
vote-counting as RCV. But maybe they didn’t like Coombs because things
could get ridiculous, like when I nominate Dracula in the primary, so that
we can bury the Democrat under Dracula.

…

…but of course there are worse things than ridiculous.  Maybe we haven’t
been fair to Coombs.

…

As I said, I prefer Condorcet, in its best versions, but it’s RCV that has
the activist movement, big well-funded national organization, lobbyists,
experienced & active campaign-managers, & big successes all around this
country.

…

…with (I’ve read) on the order of 60 municipalities & 2 states having
adopted RCV.

…

If RCV, & not Condorcet, is succeeding, we Condorcetists have nothing to
complain about. When the RCVists were doing the work, we weren’t out there
enacting anything.  Don’t blame the RCVists for that..

…

We should acknowledge, commend & appreciate what the RCV organization has
accomplished.

…

[quote]

RCV is already poorly understood.

[/quote]

…

RCV is enormously popular with progressives & progressive organizations &
parties, such as the GPUSA, the U.S. Greens.   …because they understand
that rank-balloting will allow them to express all of their preferences
among the candidates.

…

…& because they’ve been correctly informed that RCV has genuine strong
majority properties, when it coalesces the Mutual-Majority.  ..even if they
haven’t heard about the details of those properties.

…

As for RCV’s definition, RCV can be defined very briefly, in one sentence:

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Repeatedly eliminate the candidate who tops fewest rankings, till someone
tops most of them.

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[end of brief RCV definition]

…

[quote]

When I moved to San Francisco in 2011, I expected to grudgingly like voting
in RCV elections, and I expected to enjoy ranking my choices   What I found
instead was that very few people here understand how votes are counted

[/quote]

…

They would if they heard RCV’s brief definition.

…

[quote]

, and many folks in my lefty political tribe here take great pride in their
ignorance of math and the inner workings of their electoral system,
trusting that the powers-that-be will count things correctly.

[/quote]

…

…& they’re right, when the method is RCV.  (…& likewise would be, with a
good Condorcet version too.)

…

[quote]

As "exhibit A", I will point to the recent clown show in Alameda County
(i.e. just a few miles east of me, on the other side of a puddle known as
the "San Francisco Bay"):

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https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Alameda-County-admits-tallying-error-in-17682520.php

…

 It would seem that they had been counting RCV elections wrong for DECADES,
and only noticed the problem in 2022.  Simplicity and precinct summability
matters.

[/quote]

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RCV’s brief definition is simple. RCV is simple, natural & obvious.

…

There’s a lot of mis-statement about “Precinct-Summability”, &
questionable-ness about what “Precinct Summability” is supposed to mean..

…

Plurality, Approval & Score:

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Candidates’ vote totals are summed in each precinct & sent to a central
count-place, where there’s a central tabulation.

…

STAR:

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Same, at first. Then the central counting place determines the two top
scorers, & then presumably sends that information to the precincts, which
still have the rankings, & the precincts each total the pairwise votes for
each of the finalists over the other, & they all send that back to the
central location, where the results are summed & the final winner reported.

…

Condorcet:

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Each precinct counts the preference votes for A over B, & for B over A, for
each of the N(N-1)/2 pairs {A,B}.  …& those totals are sent in to the
central location, where the winner is determined according to the rules of
whatever Condorcet version is being used.

…

RCV:

…

Each precinct counts the top-count score of each candidate, & sends that in
to the central location.

…

The central location totals that count for each candidate, to determine
which has lowest top-score, & sends that information back to the precincts.

…

Each precinct eliminates that candidate from its rankings, & repeats the
first line above.

…

Repeat till the central location finds that one candidate tops most of the
rankings.

---

Notice something similar about those?  Every one of those procedures
requires counts at the precincts, & also at the central location, &
communication between the two.

…

How is RCV different?  It does such a procedure a number of times. That’s
it. That’s the difference.

…

So it’s questionable regarding what is this “Precinct Summability” that
Plurailty, Approval, Score, STAR & Condorcet all have, but RCV allegedly
doesn’t have.

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The same security measures, precautions & audits can be done with RCV as
with any of the other methods whose procedures are described above.

…

[quote]

[quote]

Strategy-evaluation for Condorcet-complying pairwise-count methods has
proven to be complicated & more difficult than one would expect.

[/quote]

…

This I will agree with. That is why I've hopped on the approval voting
bandwagon for single-winner reform.

[/quote]

…

That’s a bit hasty. Undeniably some of the pairwise-count
Condorcet-compliant methods thwart &/or deter offensive strategy so well
that it won’t be a problem, & the election of the sincere-CW will virtually
always be elected.

…

There’s the argument that there are so many good Condorcet versions that
choosing between them is prohibitively problematic, preventing the adoption
of any of them.

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No, several of the best versions can be offered to a proposal-committee, &
it can discuss & evaluate them & then choose a proposal.

…

…& there are a few obviously simplest proposals, making the choice a lot
less complicated & difficult than antii-Condorcetists claim:

…

MinMax:

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Elect the candidate whose greatest defeat is the least.

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(…implying the election of an unbeaten candidate when there is one ( as
there nearly always is) ).

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Condorcet//Approval:

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Your ranking is counted as approving everyone you rank. If no one is
pairwise-unbeaten, then elect the most approved candidate.

…

Majority-Defeat Disquaification//Approval (MDDA):

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Your ranking is counted as approving everyone you rank. Elect any unbeaten
candidate. If there are none, then every majority pairwise-beaten candidate
is disqualified, & the un-disqualified candidate with most approvals is
elected.

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(I’ve added a Condorcet-winner electing clause, because I now feel that
Condorcet’s failure-betrayal scenario is so rare & unpredictable as to be
irrelevant to strategy.)

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Sequential-Pairwise:

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Order the candidates in a list such that the ones topping more rankings are
listed below the ones topping fewer rankings.

…

Find the pairwise-winner among the top 2 candidates in the ordering. Then
find the pairwise winner between that winner & the next candidate down the
list.  Condtinue until you’ve found the winner of the then-current winner &
the last candidate in the list. S/he wins.

----------

I’d offer those 4 simple pairwise-count versions.

…

I’d also offer Approval, in case the jurisdiction either couldn’t afford,
or didn’t want to spend for, rank-balloting equipment & software.

…

I’d also offer RCV & STAR, because some proposal-committee members might
prefer them.

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I’d personally propose & justify the choice of a Pairwise-Count, with RCV
as next choice, & of course Approval if rank-balloting is infeasible or
rejected.

…

If there were a ranked vote in the proposal committee, of course my ranking
would be:

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1. Some ordering of the above-listed four Pairwise-Count methods

…

2. RCV

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3. Approval if ranked-balloting is infeasible or rejected.

-----

Yes, I like Approval. Under different conditions, normal conditions, it
would be my suggestion, though STAR would then be okay too.

…

But our voting-conditions are anything but normal.

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We always have a sleazy & corrupt POS “lesser”-evil, & a
dramatically-horrifying greater-evil.  (…& some better candidates who, our
media insist, are unwinnable, minor, not-serious, candidates.)

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We’re constantly told that the greater evil is the only bad result, & so we
have to support the “lesser-evil” against the greater-evil (…& against our
favorite).

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Always.

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It’s always this same discouraging, dismal & hopeless situation.

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That isn’t normal.  It certainly isn’t natural.

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So yes, I’d suggest Approval under normal conditions. But our highly,
bizarrely, abnormal & unnatural conditions require special methods to deal
with the (allegedly) hard choice between genuinely-wanted outcomes, &
odious dismal regrettable & deplorable “lesser” evils.

…

For these conditions, we need something more powerfully-discriminating: a
rank-method, to let everyone vote all their preferences among as many
candidates as they want to.   …to elicit & count genuine favoriteness
immediately.


…

(…not after several election-cycles, because a lot of harm can be done in 4
years or 8 years.)

…

It’s like when, in _The Godfather_, Michael says to his attorney:

…

“No, you’re a peacetime consiglieri, but right now we need a wartime
consiglieri.”
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