[EM] Consdervation of information
Richard Lung
voting at ukscientists.com
Mon Jan 23 12:49:05 PST 2023
Forest Simmons recently reaffirmed that policy confined them to forms of
elimination count, in IRV. As he said before, they are all
non-monotonic. The fact that colleagues are persisting in this course,
however, implies that this is not a fatal objection, to them.
I believe that it is only an issue, if it all, on the basis of a flawed
assumption that elections are like an axiomatic system, not allowing any
untoward consequences, such as a Riker example, and many others.
>From the statistical viewpoint, non-monotonicity might be just “noise”
in a system. In an attempt to disprove this, one team resorted to the
case of NASA using the (traditional) single transferable vote (the best
available system) to estimate the collective view of their engineers, on
best trajectories for a satellite launch.This is hardly a convincing
instance of supposedly “chaotic” consequences of non-monotonicity in STV
elections of human candidates.
Well over a century of STV usage demonstrates, all things being equal,
that the preference vote reliably corresponds to the proportional count.
The more proportional the count, in larger constituencies, the greater
the proportion of first preferences elected, together with a relatively
few higher preferences.Negligible evidence of chaotic results with STV
has been provided.
“The possibility of later harm,” alleged of parents, is an argument used
by social services, in Britain, to excuse forced adoptions. It cannot be
disproved. It is a superstition and persecution, incapable of scientific
disproof, unworthy of a modern knowledge-based society. Likewise, a
similar unproven and unprovable excuse against the use of STV, made, by
a career party, in the Plant report, citing Riker, without
demonstration, that stv is "chaotic."
Elections have been derided precisely because they are only “a
statistic,” as if the public are an uninformed rabble, unworthy of
consultation, except perhaps to humor them.But elections are not an
axiomatic system, with a predetermined result to every election.
Thus, I submit that failure to conserve preferential vote information,
or indeed proportional count information (failure to conserve individual
and collective information) is a better criterion of representation,
than non-monotonicity, in first past the post election counts and last
past the post elimination counts.
I invented a binomial stv system conserving all the preferences in the
count (over a 4 or 5 seat minimal proportionality).
Regards,
Richard Lung.
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