[EM] Addenda to "What will happen..." post

[Dave Ketchum]

On May 28, 2012, at 9:17 PM, Michael Ossipoff wrote:

> As usual, I don't know what Dave Ketchum means.

Guessing as to what Mike O is assuming, our topic is whether  
Approval's inability to indicate such as A>B>C matters.  I read the  
words below indicating that voters can estimate, accurately, various  
situations to respond to.  While such may be possible, sometimes, it  
is better to not require such estimating.
>
> Returning to the subject-line's topic:
>
> In Approval, with 3 candidates, or 3 candidates perceived viable:
>
> 1. From the point of view of the middle candidate's supporters,  
> there are 2
> possibilities:
> a. One of the extreme 2 has a majority, in which case it doesn't  
> matter what
> the Middle voters do
> b. Or Middle is the CW, in which case it is the responsible for the  
> smaller
> extreme faction to approve Middle, not vice-versa.
>
> 2. From the point of view of an extreme voter, misjudging whether to  
> approve
> Middle would amount to misjudging whether your faction is a  
> majority, vs
> whether your faction is smaller than the opposite faction. That  
> would be a
> big mis-estimate indeed, unless the middle faction is very small.
>
> And, continuing #2,  from the point of view of an extreme voter,   
> everyone
> has access to the same information, and so if it looks as if extreme  
> A is
> smaller than extreme B, then the B voters will think they don't need  
> to
> approve Middle. But the A voters will think that they _do_ need to  
> approve
> Middle. That means that, if the B voters are mistaken,  the B voters'
> mistake won't be costly. The situation favors Middle.
>
> Because of #1 and #2, the Middle voters have no reason to approve  
> either
> extreme. And for that reason, candidate A's approval count is a good
> estimate for the number of A voters, and B's approval count is a good
> estimate of the number of B voters. These are the things that the  
> extreme
> voters would like to know, or at least have an idea of.
>
> In the 2nd Approval election, the progressives or Green-preferrers  
> will have
> a good idea of whether or not the Green can beat the Republican.
>
> The Democrat good-cop/bad-cop scam will be finished, when people are
> supporting what they really like, and therefore know what others  
> like. Given
> that, and the disillusionment about what the Republocrats have been  
> doing,
> and their difference from eachother, today's pessimistic and resigned
> situation will be no more.
>
> Mike Ossipoff