[EM] Conceiving a Democratic Electoral Process
kathy.dopp at gmail.com
Fri Jul 13 05:11:45 PDT 2012
> Subject: Re: [EM] Conceiving a Democratic Electoral Process
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> re: "I don't believe that non-partisans are a majority of the
> register votes, and even a smaller percent of the voters.
> I agree that non-partisans are not a majority of the registered voters.
> As to the percentage of non-partisans among the voters, I disagree.
> I'm not an actuary or even a good researcher, but here's how I arrived
> at my estimate. I started, not with the number of voters, but with the
> number of potential voters:
Re the relative number of partisans and non-partisans, the proportion
of partisans/nonpartisans depends entirely on the state. In some
states like MA, the vast majority of voters are registered as
non-partisans. In others, the majority of registered voters register
for a party. I think in part it must depend on the type of primary,
open or closed, each state has. In some states, such as OH, there is
no partisanship recorded at all, one way or the other, in the voter
registration rolls, so it's difficult to tell. In Florida many
registered Dems tend to vote for Republicans in statewide and federal
elections, registration vestiges from the old South Lincoln days.
Some political scientists have undoubtedly done research to try to
determine the fundamental partisanship levels, but so much of opinion
and exit poll survey research work is questionably scientific due to
the blatant adjustment of samples to match unaudited, unverified prior
election results that are today counted in secret with ample
opportunities for vote manipulation in the vast majority of states.
Plus it is known that voters often inflate the rate at which they
voted for the successful prior candidate.
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Fundamentals of Verifiable Elections
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