[EM] breakdown of Oakland mayor ballots

[Bob Richard]

I believe that the DemoChoice numbers you cite are from the first 
results file, released on November 5. The data below was released on 
November 10 and includes nearly all of the ballots (although the audit 
hasn't started yet). You are correct that my totals for Quan and Perata 
should match the final round totals, and they do match the November 10 
final round totals. See here:

     http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/rcvresults_2984.htm

--Bob Richard

On 11/13/2010 10:31 AM, robert bristow-johnson wrote:
>
> On Nov 13, 2010, at 1:20 PM, Bob Richard wrote:
>
>> On 11/13/2010 8:09 AM, Kristofer Munsterhjelm wrote:
>>>
>>> Sand W wrote:
>>>> Here are the results on an actual election: 
>>>> http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table 
>>>> <http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table>
>>>>
>>>> Perata (or maybe someone in his camp) accuses the other candidates 
>>>> of "gaming the system" by promoting each other as 2nd choices.
>>>>
>>>> Some challengers tried to do that to IRV-leader Kriss Worthington 
>>>> too, but he won by a landslide.
>>>
>>> Unfortunately, there isn't enough data here to check who would won 
>>> under other methods, except for Plurality (where Don Perata would 
>>> have won). To find out the social order for a Condorcet method, one 
>>> would need the Condorcet matrix, and for most other methods, the raw 
>>> ballot data itself.
>>
>> Raw ballot data is here:
>>
>>     http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/OaklandMayor/ballot_image.txt
>>     http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/OaklandMayor/master_lookup.txt
>>     http://www.acgov.org/rov/rcv/results/ballot_image_help.pdf
>>
>> Here is the Condorcet matrix from these data files (entries are the 
>> number preferring the row candidate over the column candidate). If 
>> your email program doesn't handle HTML tables very well, this might 
>> be scrambled.
>
>
> what a minute Bob, just comparing the Perata/Quan race, it appears 
> that your totals are off by about 10000, when you compare to that 
> DemoChoice results at 
> http://www.demochoice.org/dcresults.php?poll=OakMayor&type=table .  
> the IRV final round should be precisely the pair of numbers you get in 
> the Condorcet matrix (why the hell did that format get used?, it 
> should be a triangle so that the relevant numbers sit side-by-side).
>
> you have
>
>      Quan      53778
>      Perata    51720
>
> whereas the IRV round-by-round results are
>
>      Quan      43825
>      Perata    41949
>
>
> so what gives?  that's a pretty big discrepancy.
>
>
>
> -- 
>
> r b-j                  rbj at audioimagination.com
>
> "Imagination is more important than knowledge."
>
>
>
>
> ----
> Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list 
> info
>

-- 
Bob Richard
Executive Vice President
Californians for Electoral Reform
PO Box 235
Kentfield, CA 94914-0235
415-256-9393
http://www.cfer.org

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.electorama.com/pipermail/election-methods-electorama.com/attachments/20101113/75945130/attachment-0003.htm>