[EM] How did local IRV affect CA state elections? (Sand W)
Walabio at MacOSX.Com
Mon Dec 13 14:18:15 PST 2010
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 15:14:00 -0800 (PST), “Sand W” <b4peas at yahoo.com>:
> It would/will be great if any student of statistics will do a statistical regression on these two bay-area elections, to prove that higher voter turnout in CA's IRV-modernized cities made the difference for Kamala Harris and Jerry McNerney.
The first thing to do is determine whether a phenomenon exists. This could be nothing more than post hoc proctor ergo hoc. I see no reason to believe that IRV would increase turnout. This could be a statistical fluke.
¿Is the turnout even unusual for these communities? In previous elections, ¿did these communities have higher turnout than the state average? That is an important question.
¿What is the hypothesis for why IRV could encourage turnout We need a testable hypothesis.
We do not what to end up like ghosthunters:
Ghosthunters are a bunch of idiots running around in the dark screaming “¡What was that!” Those morons make me ashamed to be human. Real investigations like the ones Joe Nickel does finds these hauntings to be either hoaxes or having mundane explanations:
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