[EM] >>>: How did local IRV affect CA state elections?

[Sand W]

  It would/will  be great if any student of statistics will do a statistical 
regression on these two bay-area elections, to prove that higher voter turnout 
in CA's IRV-modernized cities made the difference for Kamala Harris and Jerry 
McNerney.

This letter is in this week's east bay Express:
http://www.eastbayexpress.com/gyrobase/letters-for-december-8/Content?oid=2258889&storyPage=2


Ranked-Choice Voting Will Help Democrats
Kamala Harris and Jerry McNerney won BECAUSE we modernized to  RANKED-CHOICE 
VOTING. Because of IRV/RCV, the higher turnout in Oakland  and San Leandro, 
mostly Democrats, tipped the balance for Rep. McNerney.  McNerney should 
acknowledge this and be an advocate for IRV  modernization nationwide.Kamala 
Harris also owes her victory to higher  turnouts in SF, Berkeley, Oakland, and 
San Leandro because we are still  the first cities in the state to modernize to 
IRV elections. What this  demonstrates is that the cities that use RCV in 2012 
will also have a  disproportionate/greater effect in statewide/regional 
elections because  of higher voter turnout. Alameda County was a leader 
for RCV-capable  voting equipment, so hopefully every city in the county will 
allow IRV  modernization before 2012. Hopefully Debra Bowen, Jerry Brown, and  
McNerney will fund RCV machines state-/nationwide so that other cities  will not 
have to wait four-plus years like we had to. The more  progressive cities will 
probably modernize first, boosting Democrats on a  much wider scale in 2012.
_____________________(end) 

   By my estimate, it seems most likely that Neither NcNerney or Harris would 
have won except for the extra-large voter turnout in bay area districts using 
IRV.

  The most basic calculation is of how many votes were needed from IRV-induced 
voters.

  T0 do that, we need to know how many voters on average turn out in the 
IRV-using areas vs how many usually turn out in the non-IRV areas.  This is easy 
for Kaplan, but for McNerney we need to learn what percentage of his district is 
included in Oakland and San Leandro.

  With this research and calculations, authors will be able to say, "Luckily for 
Harris and McNerney, turn-out was especially high in certain bay area cities 
that used Ranked Choice Voting.

  Depending on how much research it done, a study of this could make for a dr. 
thesis in statistics.  The challenge is to determine logistical regressions for 
how much of the higher voter turnout was because of RCV, and how much of the 
observed higher turnout was needed in the cities that supported them most.

  Since I have not researched hardly any of these figures, my estimate is that 
if IRV increased turnout by 5%, McNerney may have lost without it. I haven't 
even tried to calculate for Harris.
Thanks,
-s
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