[EM] >>>: How did local IRV affect CA state elections?
b4peas at yahoo.com
Fri Dec 10 15:14:00 PST 2010
It would/will be great if any student of statistics will do a statistical
regression on these two bay-area elections, to prove that higher voter turnout
in CA's IRV-modernized cities made the difference for Kamala Harris and Jerry
This letter is in this week's east bay Express:
Ranked-Choice Voting Will Help Democrats
Kamala Harris and Jerry McNerney won BECAUSE we modernized to RANKED-CHOICE
VOTING. Because of IRV/RCV, the higher turnout in Oakland and San Leandro,
mostly Democrats, tipped the balance for Rep. McNerney. McNerney should
acknowledge this and be an advocate for IRV modernization nationwide.Kamala
Harris also owes her victory to higher turnouts in SF, Berkeley, Oakland, and
San Leandro because we are still the first cities in the state to modernize to
IRV elections. What this demonstrates is that the cities that use RCV in 2012
will also have a disproportionate/greater effect in statewide/regional
elections because of higher voter turnout. Alameda County was a leader
for RCV-capable voting equipment, so hopefully every city in the county will
allow IRV modernization before 2012. Hopefully Debra Bowen, Jerry Brown, and
McNerney will fund RCV machines state-/nationwide so that other cities will not
have to wait four-plus years like we had to. The more progressive cities will
probably modernize first, boosting Democrats on a much wider scale in 2012.
By my estimate, it seems most likely that Neither NcNerney or Harris would
have won except for the extra-large voter turnout in bay area districts using
The most basic calculation is of how many votes were needed from IRV-induced
T0 do that, we need to know how many voters on average turn out in the
IRV-using areas vs how many usually turn out in the non-IRV areas. This is easy
for Kaplan, but for McNerney we need to learn what percentage of his district is
included in Oakland and San Leandro.
With this research and calculations, authors will be able to say, "Luckily for
Harris and McNerney, turn-out was especially high in certain bay area cities
that used Ranked Choice Voting.
Depending on how much research it done, a study of this could make for a dr.
thesis in statistics. The challenge is to determine logistical regressions for
how much of the higher voter turnout was because of RCV, and how much of the
observed higher turnout was needed in the cities that supported them most.
Since I have not researched hardly any of these figures, my estimate is that
if IRV increased turnout by 5%, McNerney may have lost without it. I haven't
even tried to calculate for Harris.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
More information about the Election-Methods