[EM] [uscv-election] RELEASE: New improved methods for post-election audit sampling

[Kathy Dopp]

RELEASE:  New improved methods for post-election audit sampling
By The National Election Data Archive
Park City, UT July 17, 2009

http://kathydopp.com/serendipity/index.php?/archives/44-RELEASE-New-improved-methods-for-post-election-audit-sampling.html

Summary: A new monumental research paper that was begun in January
2009 is now finished. “Checking election outcome accuracy –
Post-election audit sampling” significantly advances and improves upon
existing risk-limiting post-election audit sampling methodology.”

According to Kathy Dopp, the report’s author, “New more precise
methods show that somewhat larger, more conservative sample sizes are
needed in order to achieve a desired high minimum probability to
detect and correct any initial incorrect election outcomes.

This new article advances and improves existing post-election audit
sampling methodology by using more precise methods.  Post-election
audit sampling methods have been the subject of extensive recent
research. This article

*  provides an overview of post-election audit sampling research and
compares various approaches to calculating post-election audit sample
sizes, focusing on risk-limiting audits,

*  discusses fundamental concepts common to all risk-limiting
post-election audits, presenting new margin error bounds, sampling
weights and sampling probabilities that improve upon existing
approaches and work for any size audit unit and for single or
multi-winner election contests,

*  provides two new simple formulas for estimating post-election audit
sample sizes in cases when detailed data, expertise, or tools are not
available,

*  summarizes four improved methods for calculating risk-limiting
election audit sample sizes, showing how to apply precise margin error
bounds to improve the accuracy and efficacy of existing methods, and

*  discusses common sampling mistakes that reduce post-election audit
effectiveness.

Adequate post-election audit sampling is crucial because analyzing
discrepancies found in too-small samples can determine little except
that the sample size is inadequate.

This article is one of three new articles in a series “Checking
Election Outcome Accuracy”. The other two articles discuss
post-election auditing procedures and an algorithm for deciding
whether to increase the sample or to certify the election outcome in
response to discrepancies found during a post-election audit.

The new methods involve using new precise upper margin error bounds.
Read the entire article
Checking Election Outcome Accuracy -- Post-Election Auditing Sampling
on-line at:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/PEAuditSamplingMethods.pdf
or at http://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3166v1


Other recent items that may be of interest to voters:

1.	Thanks, responses, and *corrections* to the USE-nix “2009
Electronic  Voting Technology Workshop / Workshop on Trustworthy
Elections”  reviewers who rejected the same article.
http://ElectionMathematics.org/em-audits/US/EVT-ReviewerResponse.pdf

USE-nix reviewers are invited to post anonymous responses to Kathy
Dopp's response to their reviews at my blog:
http://kathydopp.com/serendipity/ (or exactly at this URL)
http://kathydopp.com/serendipity/index.php?/archives/44-RELEASE-New-improved-methods-for-post-election-audit-sampling.html

2.	US Count Votes endorses and encourages support for HR2894, “The
Voter Confidence & Increased Accessibility Act of 2009” (search
http://thomas.loc.gov for the latest version)
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/legislation/HOLT_H.R2894.pdf

3.	Analysis of the “Voter Confidence & Increased Accessibility Act of
2009” (VC Bill)
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/legislation/AnalysisHoltElectionAudit2009-3.pdf

4.	The newest big threat to US election fairness and integrity after
e-ballots: “Realities Mar Instant Runoff Voting -- 18 Flaws and 4
Benefits”, February 2009 version
http://electionmathematics.org/ucvAnalysis/US/RCV-IRV/InstantRunoffVotingFlaws.pdf

5.	Report on the 2009 Burlington, VT IRV Mayoral election
http://rangevoting.org/Burlington.html



Contact: Kathy Dopp kathy at electionarchive.org or kathy.dopp at gmail.com

The National Election Data Archive is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organized
for educational and scientific purposes of promoting fair and accurate
elections by researching, developing  and promoting methods and
procedures to detect voter disenfranchisement and vote count
inaccuracy.  Such methods include independent manual vote count
audits, exit poll discrepancy analysis, and the public release and
scientific analysis of election data along with public release of
election records necessary to verify the integrity of elections.


-- 

Kathy Dopp

The material expressed herein is the informed  product of the author's
fact-finding and investigative efforts. Dopp is a Mathematician,
Expert in election audit mathematics and procedures; in exit poll
discrepancy analysis; and can be reached at

102 Kallen Ave.
Schenectady, NY
phone 435-658-4657
cell 518-505-0220

http://utahcountvotes.org
http://electionmathematics.org
http://kathydopp.com/serendipity/

Realities Mar Instant Runoff Voting - 18 Flaws and 4 Benefits
http://electionmathematics.org/ucvAnalysis/US/RCV-IRV/InstantRunoffVotingFlaws.pdf

Voters Have Reason to Worry
http://utahcountvotes.org/UT/UtahCountVotes-ThadHall-Response.pdf

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