[EM] First Condorcet cycle ever spotted in a national presidential election (!?! apparently)

[seppley at alumni.caltech.edu]

Without studying details of the three Romanian candidates and the voters'
preferences, the explanation of this majority cycle cannot be known for
sure.

However, consider a case of three very similar candidates. The voters'
preferences in each of the three possible pairings would be nearly tied
(approximately 50% preferring each candidate over each other candidate).
In such a case, a cycle involving three small majorities would not be
rare. Almost an even bet?
--Steve
--------------------------
Jameson Quinn wrote:
> This is good math, and very interesting, but it doesn't speak at all about
> the politics of the matter. Have you figured out any tentative explanation
> for the Condorcet cycles you postulate? Why would, for instance, O>B>G
> voters be more common than O>G>B voters, yet in the mirror-image votes,
> B>G>O voters more common than G>B>O ones? (I realize that the Condorcet
> cycle does not require exactly that circumstance, but it suggests
> something
> of the kind).
>
> I understand that any such explanation would be post-hoc and speculative,
> yet it is still worthwhile to make the attempt.
>
> Jameson
>
> 2009/12/8 Warren Smith <warren.wds at gmail.com>
>
>> preliminary page on Romania 2009 election now available here
>>
>> http://rangevoting.org/Romania2009.html
>>
>> The results are not as impressive as I originally thought they were
>> going to be.
>> --
>> Warren D. Smith