[EM] British Colombia considering change to STV

[Stéphane Rouillon]

Data from 4 years ago indicated that 15% of the electorate was not reached by the pro-stv

reformist promoters. The conversion rate in favor of bc-stv was 33% but I do not know

if it was from people being against the reform or people having just no idea about the debate.

If we suppose that the better organized reform movement could reah 80% of those uninformed voters

and that the others do not change their opinions, the expected result obtained is:

(57,7% + 0,8 * 15% / 3) = 61,7% but it does not take in account the growth of the electorate

if more people express a preference than 4 years ago. With this taken in account:

(57,7% + 0,8 * 15% / (3*1,12) = 61,2%

 

With a 60% yes vote required, it seems a short win is the most probable result,

but we'll have to wait and see...

 

The numbers comes from private discussion I had with M. Blais that covered the assembly process

and followed the previous referendum. On another hand, D. Pilon, an political science professor who

lives in BC is not optimistic saying negative adds could lead to another less than 60% result.

 

I'll think I'll throw a party if they win...
 
> Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2009 12:40:24 -0500
> From: watermark0n at gmail.com
> To: election-methods at lists.electorama.com
> Subject: Re: [EM] British Colombia considering change to STV
> 
> How likely do you think it is to pass?
> 
> Graham Bignell wrote:
> > Here in Canada on our left coast BC is holding another referendum on
> > their election method, in 2005 58% voted for the change, and there is
> > another vote on May 12 of this year. (60% required).
> >
> > The official description:
> > http://www.gov.bc.ca/referendum_info/first_past_the_post_bc_stv/
> > http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/ref2009/
> >
> > Some campaign sites: (I haven't found one campaigning against the change yet.)
> > http://stv.ca/
> > http://www.fairvote.ca/en/bc-electoral-reform-referendum-set-for-may-12-2009
> >
> > Notes one the last vote:
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_electoral_reform_referendum,_2005
> >
> > ...
> > Graham
> > ----
> > Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
> > 
> 
> ----
> Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info
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