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Data from 4 years ago indicated that 15% of the electorate was not reached by the pro-stv<BR>
reformist promoters. The conversion rate in favor of bc-stv was 33% but I do not know<BR>
if it was from people being against the reform or people having just no idea about the debate.<BR>
If we suppose that the better organized reform movement could reah 80% of those uninformed voters<BR>
and that the others do not change their opinions, the expected result obtained is:<BR>
(57,7% + 0,8 * 15% / 3) = 61,7% but it does not take in account the growth of the electorate<BR>
if more people express a preference than 4 years ago. With this taken in account:<BR>
(57,7% + 0,8 * 15% / (3*1,12) = 61,2%<BR>
<BR>
With a 60% yes vote required, it seems a short win is the most probable result,<BR>
but we'll have to wait and see...<BR>
<BR>
The numbers comes from private discussion I had with M. Blais that covered the assembly process<BR>
and followed the previous referendum. On another hand, D. Pilon, an political science professor who<BR>
lives in BC is not optimistic saying negative adds could lead to another less than 60% result.<BR>
<BR>
I'll think I'll throw a party if they win...<BR> <BR>> Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2009 12:40:24 -0500<BR>> From: watermark0n@gmail.com<BR>> To: election-methods@lists.electorama.com<BR>> Subject: Re: [EM] British Colombia considering change to STV<BR>> <BR>> How likely do you think it is to pass?<BR>> <BR>> Graham Bignell wrote:<BR>> > Here in Canada on our left coast BC is holding another referendum on<BR>> > their election method, in 2005 58% voted for the change, and there is<BR>> > another vote on May 12 of this year. (60% required).<BR>> ><BR>> > The official description:<BR>> > http://www.gov.bc.ca/referendum_info/first_past_the_post_bc_stv/<BR>> > http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/ref2009/<BR>> ><BR>> > Some campaign sites: (I haven't found one campaigning against the change yet.)<BR>> > http://stv.ca/<BR>> > http://www.fairvote.ca/en/bc-electoral-reform-referendum-set-for-may-12-2009<BR>> ><BR>> > Notes one the last vote:<BR>> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_electoral_reform_referendum,_2005<BR>> ><BR>> > ...<BR>> > Graham<BR>> > ----<BR>> > Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info<BR>> > <BR>> <BR>> ----<BR>> Election-Methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info<BR></body>
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