[EM] Top Two Runoff versus Instant Top To Runoff

[James Gilmour]

Kristofer Munsterhjelm  > Sent: Sunday, November 23, 2008 4:11 PM
> I'm not Kevin, but I think I can comment. In any method that's [some 
> base method] + runoff, where the runoff candidates are picked from the 
> social ordering of the base method, the existence of the second round 
> would increase the incentive to strategize.

So what happened to the incentive to strategize in the first round of the 2002 French Presidential election?

First Round Results	
Jacques Chirac  Rally for France (RPF) 19.83% 
Jean-Marie Le Pen  National Front (FN)  16.91% 
Lionel Jospin  Socialist Party (PS) 16.14% 
François Bayrou Union for French Democracy (UDF)   6.84% 
Arlette Laguiller  Workers' Struggle (LO) 5.73% 
Jean-Pierre Chevènement  Citizens' Movement (MC) 5.33% 
Noël Mamère  Greens (Vert) 5.24% 
Olivier Besancenot  Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) 4.26% 
Jean Saint-Josse  Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Traditions (CPNT) 4.25% 
Alain Madelin  Liberal Democracy (DL) 3.92% 
Robert Hue  Communist Party (PCF) 3.38% 
Bruno Mégret  National Republican Movement (MNR) 2.35% 
Christiane Taubira  Radical Left Party 2.32% 
Corinne Lepage  Citizenship, Action, Participation Movement (MCAP) 1.88% 
Christine Boutin  Social Republican Forum (FRS) 1.19% 
Daniel Gluckstein  Workers' Party (PT) 0.47% 
ELECTORATE: 40,320,334  
TURNOUT: 29,149,143  

The second round of this TTRO election was a choice between one candidate from the centre-right and one candidate from the extreme
right, despite two-thirds of the voters supporting candidates from the left.	  	
Jacques Chirac received 25,316,647 votes (82.14%) and Jean-Marie Le Pen received 5,502,314 (17.85%). Around 4% of votes were spoilt
in protest and 20% of the electorate did not vote.

I am convinced that had this been an exhaustive ballot (multi-round run-off), IRV or Condorcet election, the result would have been
quite different.  Certainly the final "top two" choice would have been very different.

The effects of TTRO are well known, but this is what real political parties do in real TTRO elections (in terms of nominating
candidates), and is what real voters do in real TTRO elections (in terms of scattering their votes around), and the results are
disastrous  -  and not just for the French in this case  -  we all had to live with the political consequences of this election.

James Gilmour

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