[EM] Quebec election - references...

Howard Swerdfeger electorama.com at howard.swerdfeger.com
Tue Mar 27 06:54:03 PDT 2007

  > This site is slightly biased toward the PLQ, however you can download
> a detailed prediction, seat by seat under the projection file.
> http://democraticspace.com/blog/quebec2007/
> http://democraticspace.com/blog/category/canadian-politics/quebec2007/
> I think that the result will be PQ minoritarian, but with the PLQ receiving
> more votes than PQ. PLQ delayed PR application despite its own promises
> and electoral program.

if you are interested in the Quebec election, you might be interested in 


The Thread is titled "divided house problem of close vote (50%+1)"

I started thinking about this problem when I heard lots of people 
complaining that the double super majority required in the Ontario and 
BC referendums (60% popular vote + 60% of the ridings) on electoral 
reform were undemocratic. While I agree with them I couldn't help 
thinking that the solution they proposed (50%+1) was also undemocratic, 
and given to random chance. Thinking back to 1995 the Quebec referendum 
was not so much a victory for the "No" in my opinion as it was a
and at the risk of (mis)quoting Rex Murphy
"Had it been a little more rainy in Montreal, we might have had a 
different result."

Then you look at other factors that largely effect the outcome.
  * When you ask the question.
Leaders like Charest, Dion, Harper, Chrétien: are constantly watching 
the polls, to try and think when they can get the result that favours 
them the most.
Cherest, tried to take advantage of the fact that Boisclair is not at 
all liked., by calling the election. He obviously failed to account for 
the fact that most people hate him also.

So, In my opinion 50% +1 or -1 is far to easy for the people in power to 
influence and far to vulnerable to random noise. But I also think that 
Super majority criteria are anti democratic as well. They can lead to 
minority rule.

So I came up with this basic idea, based on a simple neuron model by 
asking the question multiple times with a super majority threshold. your 
  score is
Score = 'Old Score' + 'Yes%' - 50%
with criteria to automatically re-ask the question, if the result is close.

check out the thread, or post questions if you are at all interested.

any way in conclusion
"Vive le Québec! Vive le Canada Français!"

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