# [EM] divided house problem of close vote (50%+1)

Howard Swerdfeger electorama.com at howard.swerdfeger.com
Thu Mar 15 04:52:25 PDT 2007

```> Howard Swerdfeger's xls sheet btw doesn't behave exactly the same way
> as the written description of the method says. It doesn't let the  Mars
> results drop below 45%. Thanks to Howard Swerdfeger for  providing the
> sheet. Tthat is a good method to give clear  (operational) definitions
> to the methods.

I might have left some stuff out of the description.
As there are some if Statements in the Spreadsheet that I don't like
having, for theoretical reasons. But, I do like having for practical
reasons.

But regardless the Mars result can easily Fall below 45%
here is how.
1. Assume Mars = YES votes
2. Clear All of the Column "F" Labeled Results
3. Enter 44 in in Cell "F5" (vote #1)
Done

The Part I didn't describe was a provision saying that if the returned
result from Referendum N is greater then the calculated score then the
referendum result replaces the calculated score.

> Note that it is possible that the sum of Mars and Venus votes need  not
> be 100%. It is possible for example to have a faction that is  eager to
> send a rocket to any planet. As a result both planets may  get !50%
> results. In this case I don't know what happens if both  planets reach
> the super majority limit at the same round.

I don't see how this is possible?
could you give me an example?

> One could also make the rules such that there is only one Mars vs.
> Venus vote at each round and the decision will be made when the  balance
> will go from 50% to some threshold % to either direction.  This way the
> election would be a symmetric election between two  similar options (not
> a status quo vs. change type of election as in  the original version).

yes I agree this is possible. even useful.

>> This means that a majority can get anything past if they stick to  their
>> guns, however, it will take lots of votes (spaced say 1 day apart).
>>
>> It also naturally scales the time spent debating based on how
>> controversial the decision is.
>>
>> Handling multiple choices could be handled with approval voting.   Using
>> multiple rounds means that the tactics for approval are easier to use.
>
>
> Yes. Even Condorcet could be used - just keep increasing/decreasing  the
> elements of the comparison matrix.
>
> I think there could be also electronic election methods where results
> are calculated in real-time and voters may change their vote when  they
> see what the current results are. The behaviour of a method in  this
> situation could be also used as one criterion to evaluate the  stability
> of the method. This kind of situations could make also the  Nash
> equilibrium of strategic voting states more meaningful (I have  earlier
> criticized them as not being a good measure for typical ("non  real-time
> feedback") elections).

interesting, would your real time elections have some form of "leak" to
them?
or would the persons vote stand until they changed it.
this a very interesting read on Proxy democracy that might be similar to
what you are thinking.
* http://fc.antioch.edu/~james_green-armytage/vm/proxy.htm

>
> Juho
>
>
>> For example, if you could use the following formula
>>
>> New Approval = 2/3 * ( Old Approval*3/4 + approval from vote )
>>
>> if 50% approve of an option, it will get
>>
>> Round 1:
>> 2/3*( 0 + 50) = 33%
>>
>> Round 2:
>> 2/3*(25+50) = 50%
>>
>> Round 3:
>> 2/3*(38+50) = 59%
>>
>> Round 4:
>>
>> 2/3*(44+50) = 63
>>
>> At round N (with N -> inf)
>>
>> Round N
>>
>> 2/3*(50+50) = 66 and 2/3
>>
>> Round N+1
>>
>> 2/3*(50+50) = 66 and 2/3
>>
>> I would suggest rounding upwards to the nearest percent.  Ignoring
>> rounding
>> an option cannot get the supermajority unless it has 50%+ approval.
>>
>>
>> Alternatively, rounding down could be used and the supermajority
>> could be
>> set to say 65% required.
>>
>>
>>
>> Raphfrk
>> --------------------
>> Interesting site
>> "what if anyone could modify the laws"
>>
>> www.wikocracy.com
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