[EM] manipulation free method?

[Dave Ketchum]

As to exploring - seems interesting.

As to a potential method, I would expect to complain about complexity:
      Plurality - I am unable to express my thoughts in enough detail.
      Condorcet - a good balance.
      This attempt - the other extreme - why do I see this as acceptable, 
as a voter?

DWK

On Fri, 29 Jun 2007 18:26:14 -0700 (PDT) Forest W Simmons wrote:

> It's true that there can be some incentive to lie about whom you think 
> is the most likely to win, but there is no point in lying about your 
> preference order.
> 
> Here's a version that reduces the incentive to lie about perceived 
> probabilities:
> 
> Each person indicates both a guess as to the winner, and a number alpha 
> between zero and ten indicating how confident they are in their guess.  
> The larger alpha, the greater weight in the community estimate.  
> 
> Here's the kicker.  On your ballot, the probability distribution is a 
> weighted average between the guess you submitted and the community 
> distribution.
> 
> If your guess is bogus, then you wouldn't want it to have much weight 
> on your own ballot, so you will choose a small value of alpha, and it 
> won't influence the community distribution much either.
> 
> FWS

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  Dave Ketchum   108 Halstead Ave, Owego, NY  13827-1708   607-687-5026
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