[Election-Methods] Top 5 Primary

[Don&Cathy Hoffard]

In this example I will uses the 2008 US Presidential Election only to
illustrate a point - you could assume a state Governor or Senators race

 

We currently have about 25 candidates running for President of the United
States.

9 Democrats

9 Republicans

3 (assumed) Green

2 (assumed) Libertarian

2 (assumed Constitution

 

Bases on the current election laws we will have 5 candidates in the General
Election.

1 Democrat

1 Republican

1 Green

1 Libertarian

1 Constitution

 

Voters will be asked the vote for one of these candidates.

 

Why do we have to choose among the following preferences (using head-to-head
match ups - i.e. Condorcet) among the 25 candidates running?

 

4 most preferred (Democrat Party/Clinton-Plurality winner)

5 most preferred (Republican Party/Giuliani-Plurality winner)

15-19 most preferred (Green Party - assume Nader)

21 most preferred (Libertarian Party -unknown)

23 most preferred (Constitution Party -unknown)

 

If we have to have 5 candidate in the general election why not have the TOP
5 (based on the Condorcet method)

 

They would be the following (assuming the Primary Election matches the Dec.
Polls):

1.	Edwards (would beat all Republicans and Democrats based on Condorcet
rankings see below) 
2.	(tie) McCain 
3.	(tie) Obama 
4.	Clinton 
5.	Giuliani 

We could then chose the winner (and next president) using the Condorcet
method (or use range, approval, or IRV methods)

 

If the General Election voting matched to polls then Edwards would be
elected President

I'm not necessarily voting for him, this is only the Voters Preferred
President.

 

Thanks

Don Hoffard

 

 

Poll results:


Margins of Victory (based on Dec. Polls)

 

 

 


Vs.

          Giuliani

    Romney

                            Huckabee

        McCain

Thompson

   Average


Clinton

6

11

10

-2

13

7.6


Obama

7

13

15

0

12

9.4


Edwards

9

22

25

8

14

15.6


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Average

7.3

15.3

16.7

2.0

13.0

10.9


 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Condorcet ranking (assumed based on margins and averages)

 

1          Edwards 

2 tie      Obama 

2 tie      McCain

4          Clinton

5          Giuliani

6          Thompson

7          Romney

8          Huckabee

 

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