[EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

[Dave Ketchum]

THANK YOU!!!

Glad you and I agree on the result, though via different approaches.

The Bowman table has the look of being a Condorcet result, though not 
actually labeled as such.

So I looked at the numbers for Kiss vs Curley, Louie, and Ploof.  In each 
case the numbers in row 3 could be Kiss leading - they are too big for 
total votes for the competitors - means blanks get counted as  losing. 
Column 3 could be competitors - they are within total ballots for each 
competitor's vote.

Now try Kiss vs Miller.  3455 in row 3 cannot be a Kiss number since he 
has about 3808 first place votes.

DWK

On Fri, 10 Mar 2006 23:25:54 -0800 (PST) Rob LeGrand wrote:

> I took the raw data from the site Brian Olson posted and ended up with a
> slightly different pairwise table:
> 
>      (0)  (1)  (2)  (3)  (4)  (5)
> (0)    - 5545 6747 3991 6790 7336
> (1) 3556    - 5165 3397 5136 5875
> (2) 1161 1289    -  804 2028 3290
> (3) 4763 5730 6961    - 7027 7351
> (4)  987 1318 1869  603    - 3094
> (5)  323  311  431  194  510    -
> 
> (0) Hinda Miller
> (1) Kevin J. Curley
> (2) Louie The Cowman Beaudin
> (3) Bob Kiss
> (4) Loyal Ploof
> (5) Write-ins
> 
> It's identical to the one at http://two.bolson.org/a.html except for the
> first column: I have Hinda Miller with many more votes against her.  I've
> looked for errors in my results but haven't found the problem.  If I'm
> right, the Condorcet winner changes from Miller to Bob Kiss, the IRV
> winner.  I think finding a real-world election in which IRV failed to
> elect the voted Condorcet candidate would be quite significant, so I'm
> hoping my results are wrong, but they do seem more consistent with the
> final round of the real IRV election (although they're still off by a
> handful of ballots).  It'd be great if someone else could take the raw
> data from the election page and triple-check the results independently.
> Regardless of the result, thanks to Brian for pointing this out.
> 
> --
> Rob LeGrand, psephologist
> rob at approvalvoting.org
> Citizens for Approval Voting
> http://www.approvalvoting.org/

-- 
  davek at clarityconnect.com    people.clarityconnect.com/webpages3/davek
  Dave Ketchum   108 Halstead Ave, Owego, NY  13827-1708   607-687-5026
            Do to no one what you would not want done to you.
                  If you want peace, work for justice.