[EM] Condorcet candidate losing in Peru?

Rob LeGrand honky1998 at yahoo.com
Mon Apr 17 22:51:53 PDT 2006

The current election for president of Peru may give an excellent real-
world example of top-two runoff (and thus probably IRV) failing to elect
a Condorcet winner.  According to the Wikipedia coverage of the election
at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_national_election,_2006 , the
official results of the vote that took place on 9 April 2006 will be
released in around ten days.  The "partial official results" place
Ollanta Humala ahead of Alan Garcia and Lourdes Flores, in that order,
meaning that the runoff election to be held in around a month will likely
include only Humala and Garcia.  However, the last polls before the
election showed that Flores would win a runoff against either Humala
(55%-45%) or Garcia (58%-42%), making her the likely Concorcet winner,
since all other candidates were well behind the pack.  (Those same polls
showed that Humala would be favored over Garcia 51%-49%.  My brother is
in Peru right now with the Peace Corps and is hoping that Humala, a
friend of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, doesn't win--he says that Humala would
be likely to kick Peace Corps out of Peru.)

Rob LeGrand, psephologist
rob at approvalvoting.org
Citizens for Approval Voting

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