[EM] Real IRV Ranked Ballots

[Dave Ketchum]

On Tue, 2 Mar 2004 16:44:56 -0500 Eric Gorr wrote in part:

> Through my efforts to get out there an advocate for both Approval and 
> good Condorcet Methods (MAM, etc.), I am currently in communication with 
> a dedicated IRV supporter who may be claiming that they would move away 
> from IRV if a real example could be given where IRV selected an 
> obviously wrong winner.
> 
> In the meantime, they have stated:
> 
>> I believe Ireland and Australia report full ranked
>> ballots.
> 
> 
> Can anyone verify this or submit any proof that it is not true?
> 

I would not plan on anyone providing statistics that prove their system is 
weak - I do not see either IRV or Condorcet counters providing statistics 
that would show what the other system would do with their ballots - they 
do not need such numbers to complete their own counting.

Could be, someday, someone counts both ways - but chances are that 
election would not have any problems.


> 
> If anyone has more realistic examples where IRV selects an extremely 
> poor winner, I would be interested.
> 

I will dress up the example I created and like, as best I can:

40 A - A backers are homogenous and care nothing beyond heir first choice.
29 B - Also homogenous behind a stable candidate.
29 C,B - C has convinced a LOT of Bs that he has BETTER ideas - but these 
Bs STILL like B better than A.
02 absentee, not yet counted when polls close.

Now the absentees both turn out to be:
      B - and both methods agree C is to be ignored and B wins.
      C,B - AND:
           IRV decides B is to be ignored, after which A beats C and 60 
voters are ready to riot if they get to hear what happened.
           Condorcet sees a cycle of near ties:  B>A, A>C, C>B.  At 31>29, 
C>B is the weakest link, leaving B as winner over A.

Among the discussion points:
      How does IRV justify giving A a win, when most voters agree B is better?
      Could be A is anti-abortion and B is prochoice.  C agrees with B as 
to prochoice but disagrees with B as to some social security detail.
-- 
  davek at clarityconnect.com    people.clarityconnect.com/webpages3/davek
  Dave Ketchum   108 Halstead Ave, Owego, NY  13827-1708   607-687-5026
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