[EM] Median Voter Theorem and the 50-50 Nation

[Alex Small]

We've all heard that this is a 50-50 nation, with the two major parties
basically dead-locked.  And that observation certainly seems to be
consistent with poll numbers and Congressional election results.  Although
the GOP currently has a majority in both houses of Congress, it is hardly
a large majority.

(To be fair, this is really only a 25-25 nation, since 50% don't vote, but
let's just stick to those who do vote for now.)

Now, some interpret this in terms of polarization.  They see rancor
everywhere.  And when popular political books have titles like "Treason"
or "Stupid White Men", well, it's easy to conclude that there's
polarization.  Others believe that there's really very little
polarization, that the parties are basically indistinguishable from one
another, and all this rhetoric is a smoke screen to make the differences
seem larger than they really are.

In any case, however polarized or unpolarized things might be, one thing
is clear, and that is that in the battle for power the 2 parties seem to
be in a close contest.  Pundits usually try to explain this by assuming
that the American people themselves are divided in one way or another. 
Let me offer a new explanation:

What if the 2 parties are simply incredibly good at what they do?  They
can blend just the right mix of appeals to core constituents plus moderate
policies for swing voters, and target all of these things with precision,
and wind up with the electoral results promised by the median voter
theorem.

Whether or not their policies are _actually_ centrist is irrelevant, what
_is_ relevant is that they have found a way to carve out equal-sized
niches for themselves, and all that's really up for grabs is a tiny
portion in the middle.  (Well, that tiny slice in the middle plus all
those who aren't voting.)

Might the 50-50 nation simply be the product of evenly-matched political
strategists butting heads and neither one reaching a decisive victory? 
Forget red states and blue states, forget culture wars, forget 2 Americas,
maybe this is all the inevitable result of 2 equal opponents fighting to a
draw.  We Americans are the same as we've always been, no more or less
divided than before, it's just that 22.5% of us have concluded that one
gang of thieves is the lesser evil, 22.5% of us have concluded that
another gang of thieves is the lesser evil, 5% are unsure, and 50% don't
care.


Another suggestion, something along the lines of "the end of history": 
Data isn't a perfect substitute for old-fashioned charisma and instinct,
but it certainly helps.  With ever more sophisticated gerrymandering
software, more detailed polling data, and more targeted advertising
through the ever-expanding and highly differentiated plethora of media
outlets, politicians might become better and better at cementing their
grip on their market segments and also carving out little bits of
territory among the 10% (well, really 5%) undecided.  The result might be
a shrinking undecided territory.

I have no illusion that from now until the end of eternity political
battles will always be battles over an ever-shrinking undecided
percentage.  No doubt there will be ups and downs and realignments.  But
technology might enable the parties to at least prolong the periods of
close divide.

Any thoughts on this?